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Human Genome Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • rick.gordon16 rick.gordon16 Jun 26, 2009 9:31 AM Flag

    3 possibilities for phase 3 results

    most likely as I see it is: results positive mostly but need more datapoints to confirm July results in November which will create more excitement towards November final results stock higher but not exploding about 4 - 5,
    2nd across the board positive need to reconfirm in november then fast track FDA approval stock 10+, 3rd somewhat dissapointing but still needs work look to November final results for improvement, stock 2 but has potential for big y/e finish. Most likely I think is 1st scenario thoughts anyone!

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    • I have no doubt that this stock will reach $20.00 per...i only have 250 shares but will buy more..i believe in it and the company and the good work that they are doing....
      just my opinion...i don't pay any attention to the basheers....

    • rick,

      I appreciate your post about the 3 scenarios for the first LSB P3 results due out soon. I look at it a bit differently. First off, because of the 4 years of data we already have, we are REALLY sure the drug is safe. All we are concerned with is efficacy and we are looking at ONE thing; did LSB show that more patients achieved the primary composite endpoint vs. placebo at the p less than .05 level. It's pretty cut and dried, either YES or NO. If yes, the stock may be $8; if NO, then perhaps $1. Since there is a second P3 only 4 months behind it, then there may be a small shade of gray area. But, if say the p value is .33 in favor of LSB, I would forget about the second P3 showing less than .05 and so the share price could be $1 when trading resumes after the upcoming announcement. Similarly, if the p value is.01, then the second P3 should be confirmatory and the price could open at around $8. I would say that only if the p value is in the .04 to .10 range, could the November 52 week P3 results and some of the secondary factors (like the 76 week results, reduced need for steroids, etc.) come into play as to whether the FDA would approve this. If the p value were in that range, I couldn't predict how the shareprice would behave.

      -- Steve

    • How about momentum from other HGSI pipeline drugs? Are you just noting the possible single impact from BENLYSTA?

    • your right on all three scenarios