Longs listen to Citi they are to help they know! Look for a wave of down grades next week after conference..insiders would be buying if there was value here..Hgsi will trade between 5 and 7 pps by end of September..Watkins cant find anyone to by his co.! May get a 9.80 offer when stock gets to 7....those that bought in the 30s 20s and teens will face massive tax losses..SHORT AT WILL!
Since the “Shkreli” thesis here is that Benlysta has minimal efficacy, especially when compared to the benchmark of Remicade in rheumatoid arthritis, let’s look at the data. The widely used effectiveness metric of NNT (Number Needed to Treat) for Remicade has been reported at approximately 4 (range 3-6) ktclearinghouse.ca/ceb..., which compares to NNT of 8.5 for combined Phase-3 trials of Benlysta (BLISS-52 and BLISS-76 trials). When calculating for the most stringent prescribing criteria being used in European approved label (“high disease activity” patients, i.e., prerequisite of low complement levels and positive anti-dsDNA), the NNT is 5. HGSI reported at EULAR convention in May 2011 that this subset was 52% of the BLISS study population and whom had more dramatic steroid sparing, statistically significant reductions in FACIT-Fatigue scores, SF-36 PCS, and severe flares. They also had statistically significant SRI responder rate at 76 weeks (i.e., a durable long-term response). So if you limit the Rhum docs prescribing only to this “high disease activity” population, the model conservatively predicts 150K to 250K patients in USA and EU getting Benlysta. That compares to about 20K patients in the “Shkreli” model, which clearly is way underestimating the drug efficacy & likely patient pool size…..even by Remicade historical standards.
Response by "hardfocus" to "Shkreli-the liar"
No where in the Citi report does it say $7 fair value. But it does say on pg 9:
OTHER DISCLOSURES: Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 5% or more of any class of common equity securities of Human Genome Sciences Inc.
Kind of makes you wonder if they're attempting to accumulate cheap shares by fanning fear/panic selling?
Excellent finding. All analysts have their own agenda and they work either for their rich client or large company like GSK. If GSK want to Buy cheaply what they will do? DNDN just give them hope and so far they doing great using DNDN fear. Hope HGSI insider not part of game.
Analysts are here to misguide main street investor. They run agenda for wealthy & large companies where they collect most fees. just month back they saying no issue even after earning and within month suddenly become negative that tell me they run GSK agenda so GSK get HGSI cheaper. My only hope is HGSI mgmt is not part of this and so we atleast get close to fair price.($25) (HGSI Mgmt own just 5% and so they will be more interested in position & compensation over share price)