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Human Genome Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Sep 5, 2011 2:58 PM Flag

    Collins Stewart analysis July 22nd

    Read analysis carefully. For those analysts that change their view after just one slightly negative IMS/WK, I have one question can fundamental change suddenly? Even if IMS/WK report is true that MoM growth was only 20% for july do they really done more research on possible reason before cutting rating drastically? July is most popular vacation month for all physicians as well patients. Both Physician and Patient will prefer to delay new treatment which requires timely infusion in 2 week interval (First time).

    You simply can't compare with other drug which does not require infusion by physician. They also have some impact due to vacation but not as significant as there is no special planning required by physician.
    Any physician who planning at least few days vacation in july would delay Benlysta treatment, another thing that happen same time is Q Code availability at July 1st. That give another reason for Physician to delay treatment. No one like uncertainty with reimbursement and they will sure wait for Q-Code available in their system before start new patients.


    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Collins+Stewart+Maintans+a+Buy+on+Human+Genome+Sciences+(HGSI)%3B+Promising+Metrics+from+First+Full+Q%3A/6654141.html

    Number of patient physician treating is encouraging. Normally physician only like to treat one or two patient initially & try learning from experience before starting more patient.
    Here in July Out of 30 physician Collins Stewart survey, 11 physician start using benlysta treating 42 which show both confidence in physician as well proof that patient population is very large. (Remember out of 11, most just started using benlysta and it's only going to improve. I think we will at least hit 10 per physician very soon) When that happen, we already running at near $1 billion/year sale rate. (Assuming 70% of 4000+ physician treating 10 patient each)

 

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