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Human Genome Sciences Inc. Message Board

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Sep 22, 2011 11:04 AM Flag

    Biologic Drug Launch

    I am doing lot of research on Biologic drug launch and have few interesting thought (Most of them are facts and other are logical conclusion based on known facts). Thought to share with you. So here it is.

    Biologic never able to get that fast launch no matter how miracle it is. There are multiple reasons. Reimburse issue, Not many similar drug in market and so little clinical exprience and because they are biologic which injected to your Body, Physician never comfortable with it.

    You have to think yourself as physician and tell whether you feel confortable injecting something to Patient where you don't know what would happen next. I personally either wait or try 1 patient for little while before expand usage.

    Why Benlysta Launch hype created:
    Most number derived using survey with Physician who likely use it. Just like analyst they are very optimastic with initial drug usage (I really think it's very good news but too bad they created very high expectation initially). On this board Lot of people claim (Many aftermath ) that they short at these price and now they making profit. They cover short & gone long now. In real world it's imposibile. We think much faster but don't work that fast. If they really doing it as claim They would be millionaire now, and don't care to come message board either.

    How Biologic Drug Launch will Look like:
    1.> 1st Year According to HGSI Southwell, All previous Biologic launch has 1 year break down Q1 5%, Q2 15%, Q3 30% Q4 50%.
    2.> 2nd Year: Looking into couple of previous biologic launch which are very successful like remicade, They have more than 140-150% growth from 1st year to 2nd year
    3.> 3rd year Again 110-130% growth (May be bit more) 2nd to 3rd year.

    What it mean to Benlysta launch:
    We know first Quater is 7.8M
    We also know 1st Quater to 2nd running close to 300%
    So it is following 5% 15% 30% 50% rule and by that defination
    We will have
    1st year revenue $160M
    2nd Year revenue $400M ( I think it will better than this given 33% Mom growth after 5month into launch)
    3rd Year revenue $850M (Again I think this will more likely close to 1 billion)

    Success of Biologic drug can not measure by looking first couple Quater chart. Which is reason I am laughing at all analysts who jump gun with 1 month data and lower price target. (That 1 month has 20% growth given it was comparision between 5 year number v/s 4 Week so it was really not that bad given vacation season.)

    Hype is only about initial sale, If you compare other Biologic on long term projection, Benalysta is on path to sale atleast $2B/ year sale in USA within next 5 year. I won't suprise if it reach 3B given unmet need and no competitor.
    I am very new to Biologics drugs and still learning about biologics launch. I think it's very important to understand that it's very different than any other drug launch no matter how novel that drug is.

    You can't apply simple normal Pill drug or Injected Drug at home because they are prescription drug and Physician does not need to worry lot of thing that he do need to worry with Biologic drug.

    On Plus side for drug (Not really for patients) is Doctor make more money administrating in office than prescribing it and likely more interested in Biologic drugs in long run. Which is reason Growth does not get slow getting into 2nd or 3rd year like other drugs.

    Also less likely to replace very quickly. Too Bad but reality is money is what matter in this world. Again We all here for that as well.

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