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Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. Message Board

  • h_grant_h h_grant_h Nov 11, 2010 8:52 AM Flag

    Greater fools -

    I had a target of $7-8 based on the financial structure of the company in 2009.

    But they fool chased it to $34 instead!

    Now, they are in greater ruins than I expected.

    Watch $7-8 level, it will hit there.

    I would be worried about the debts. As I pointed out, this is a razor-thin marginal business and there is simply now way they would ever pay back the debts, except to sell those ships and close the door forever.

    We've see the same games played out with DRYS, TBSI, EXM, ect. When will those fools learn the truth about the structure of the extraordinary debts?

    Very foolish buyers.

    Will we see this thing go to $3-? Very possible.

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    • Don't let this idiot succeed. Do your own research and understand the company. Yes the company had more debt but also added to their fleet total of 54 vessels now. They added 15+ vessels since last year. So, they used credit to buy the vessels. The profit margin is very low but look at the competitors - approx. 2% lower margins- trading 13.25X while ANW is not even close. Sales went up, vessel count went up - the enterprise value is 1.2B and the market cap today is 450MM. Come on- do your DD and tell me this company is not a good investment. Also, please note that all the market is down today. Look at JNJ, PG, DO, RIG all down... Stay strong and don't let your $12-14 stock of next week go at $10.15. thank you

      • 1 Reply to met_altan009
      • The more they lose, the nastier they become.

        They always believe that some greater fools will show up to bail them out. Yet, they refuse to admit the fact that they are the greater fools - they are, in fact the last ones to take over the bags.

        And those idiots will lose everything in that process, as this company become just another one of those casualties of "aggressively growing" the business with even more aggressively taking up the debts.

        Unfortunately, while the debts are growing fast, the profits are shrinking faster. The end games are coming up.

    • within 30 days it will trade 12-13
      on the bounce way oversold

    • Let me get this straight:

      The fools jumped in again, having lost their shirts already in this debt-strapped and soon-to-be-in-default paper?!

      What else is new?

      What the greater fools failed to understand is the simple fact that, the minute they get the new ships in, the ships started to depreciate rapidly - the values of a ship drops like those of your new cars.

      But the debts that they took on to buy those ships do not drop. Instead, they must keep making big interest payment every month.

      So the real equity keeps shrinking, especially once they started to accumulate losses in business operations. The slide on the downhill all starts slowly, but accelerates as it goes down. And few would accept the reality until the first of default on debt hit the bagholders hard.

      And they start crying, loudly.

      But right now, they started to sweat, breathing heavily and hiding the tears.

      There is no escape from the final debt destruction, no matter how nasty the bagholders will be in trash-talking.


      • 3 Replies to h_grant_h
      • As always, my posts were the most hated, but my takes were as accurate as any big player would ever get long before it happened.

        I predicted that this company would start to lose money; and as the debt burdens becoming unbearable, the stock would play out like all others in the ship sector: TBSI, DRYS, EXM, etc, you name it!

        The next gap down is inevitable - when the first sign of default on the debt payment is smelled. It's panic time already.

        Watch for $7 level next. And then, $5, and then $3.

      • A quick glance of the board tells me that the bagholders are in extreme pains, and they have no way out.

        There will be another leg down, when the last of those funds still hoping for a "bounce" must get out before Nov 30.

        The fall is just started.

      • LOL! Ok bud. Bought 2k this morning, great bounce play here.

    • this guy is an idiot.Nostr-idiot

    • Go back to bed, DOOM AND GLOOM. IGNORE !

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