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America West Holdings (AWA) Message Board

  • market_kings market_kings Dec 15, 2003 12:06 PM Flag

    When crude oil goes down, awa will see

    higher prices.
    Look at the Nov.15 to Dec. 1 timeframe and you'll see the big drop in oil price was parallel with the awa price appreciation.
    Don't buy all the hype about China and demand for oil. In winter months, oil prices will drop and might I add everyday that passes, Iraqi oil is a day closer to the market.
    At any rate, crude oil is currently at an overbought level and as you see it drift lower, you'll see the same price appreciation in airlines.
    I truly believe the current oil price and any apprciation in the short term is a sucker's rally.

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    • FWIW, I just saw Jim Cramer on TV saying he thought the days of high oil prices were numbered.

    • "A big part of this, I think, is because people who say the market is wrong don't get press coverage. The media tends to ask, "Why is this happening?" Not "Should this be happening?"

      That's a good point, mot -- especially since the news cycle tends to be very short these days.

      With oil, you would think there'd be a reporter out there challenging the "experts" with my very common sense critique of "reality." It would make a heck of a good story.

    • Don't buy all the hype about China and demand for oil. In winter months, oil prices will drop and might I add everyday that passes, Iraqi oil is a day closer to the market.
      _________________
      Everyday that passes Iraq oil is not any closer to flowing. The terrorists understand that its very important to destroy and prevent the Iraqi oil infrastructure from working. And the states that fund them (Saudi Arabi, Iran) have a stake in preventing the US from controling any oil in Iraq.

    • "I truly believe the current oil price and any apprciation in the short term is a sucker's rally."

      Yeah, if you follow supply and demand, the current price for oil is historically irrational. If you remember last year -- one of the coldest on record, with the US about to go to war in the Middle East and oil stocks significantly lower than today -- I don't think oil was as high as it is now (it may have been close). So the absence of a real war risk, the higher inventories, and the warmer temperatures are translating into NO reduction in oil prices. That's "voodoo economics" if there ever was any.

      Playing the percentages, you've got to believe oil prices are going to get whacked soon. If I was trying to hedge an airline's future oil needs, that's certainly the bet I would make here.

 

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