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Accelerate Diagnostics, Inc. Message Board

  • littlejimmyvalentino littlejimmyvalentino Oct 26, 2013 11:12 PM Flag

    Money Behind AXDX

    The Pompous Guy on Twitter defers to SEC ownership filings. I have spent some time to determine whether or not they hold muster. They do.

    The AXDX story is backed with big investments from some of the savviest health care investors in the world. Jack Schuler, ex CEO of Abbot and founder of Steryicycle, owns 22% or about $150MM. Jack Patience, former head of Health Care of McKinsey owns about 6%, while Larry Feinberg--a huge hedge fund guy--owns about 6% as well.

    Yes AXDX got hammered on Thursday and especially Friday. And if Viking wants to take credit for it, he is entitled to. But at the same time, you have to show deference to guys who have done this before (they sold Ventana to Roche for 3.8B) who have sunk somer very serious change into AXDX.

    To say that AXDX is short of cash isn't really true. They're burning about $2MM per month and it appears that they have about $40MM in cash.

    The risks and potential payoffs are spelled out very well in the 10K. Hard to say what the company is worth today. IF and IF is a big word here--AXDX can get their tool approved, adopted and sold, we're talking a lot of upside. But it's a long road. And they might not get there.

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    • Cost basis is very low for these folks.

      • 1 Reply to boardwalk97
      • Cost basis might be low. But you have to take a look at the compensation package and ownership in its entirety. The CEO and CFO have options that vest completely in 2016. The CFO has 200,000 options that are worth $2MM today--except that they're not vested. The CEO has a mountain of options with the same incentive. The bottom line is that the people behind this thing have sunk a ton of money in this. Schuler has put in about $25MM--it's worth $150MM now. And his management team gets virtually nothing if they don't perform. If this was a horse race, you'd be betting on the jockey on this one. I am.

    • stock price 13.00

      • 1 Reply to bkfviking123
      • Viking disseminates stuff that is both true and non true. The stock is indeed $13 per share. That's true....

        But a lot of what he says is very false. Example: He states that current management has no diagnostic experience. False. The CEO Mehren headed Ventana's diagnostic division and sold it to Roche for $3.8 Billion. Schuler is on the Board of QDEL. Patience headed McKinsey's Health Care Division.

        In fact, the ONLY reason to buy this stock is the faith that one would have in management in bringing this product to fruition. For Viking to say that "he knows more than these guys" borders between delusional and ridiculousness.

        What Viking does say that is true (note the balance here) is that BACcel has no prototype and no pending approvals before the FDA. That spells a lot of risk. And it's possible that a $520MM market cap is too rich for a developmental company.

        That said, you have the "Six Insiders" with---and this is no exaggeration--over $300MM tied up in AXDX and we haven't even mentioned the multitude of options available should Mehren properly execute his plan.

        This is no slam dunk to be sure. But questioning whether management has experience or certification or proper lab facilities is a silly diversion. I wish that Viking was more consistent--because he does add some interesting points--but we lose interest when he promulgates stuff that is beyond nonsense

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