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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

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  • moobyet moobyet Feb 25, 2011 7:44 PM Flag

    trend analysis

    It is just beyond me why is it so hard to pass $16 level. For god sake even the most garbage stocks have moved up with the way market has made a new high this year. With oil hitting almost $100 and this stock is still struggling . The solar stocks were the only sector that suffered today and it should have been the opposite. I will hold one more week and if I don't see some kind of improvement then selling is the only option, because I am sick of waiting for the solar stock to recover.

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    • In my opinion, there is no relationship between the price of oil and solar, other than a very minor tie with heating oil. The current oil spike is primarily because of the potential for major oil supply interuption and trader speculation; there is currently no interuption or shortage in solar panel supply (or wafer supply) like occured two years ago when CSIQ hit $52. Hence the disconnect this time.

      As for selling next week, personally I would wait until after the CC report and outlook forcast. Si-solar panels are just now reaching their potential sales levels originally forcasted for 2010, but thwarted by the great recession and credit funding problems. Big producers, however, are financing field array installations for major utilities around the world and operating them on a lease back basis; and that seems to be the magic formula for increased sales and revenue stream development. In fact, that stream development is what's fueling margin growth at this time.

      I'm holding 'til April 1 to see what develops, and I think it will be good news across the industry... especially CSIQ and STP, both still undervalued IMO. If we don't pass $17 at that point, then I would re-think.

17.28-0.49(-2.76%)3:43 PMEST