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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • gianni_urgentsolutions gianni_urgentsolutions Sep 6, 2011 12:02 AM Flag

    AT $ 1.40/Watt = Profit $ 2 per share

    Sales of 2 GW at $ 1.40 per watt gives $ 2.8 billion

    Calculating net profit at 5% gives $ 140 million

    Less Interest & R and D 60 million

    Net Profit 80 million

    Shares o/s 40 million

    Net Profit per share $ 2 per share

    Trading at 30x profit gives $ 60 per share

    Return of 1000%

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • 6" Solar Wafers = $1.74/Eac

      Multicrystalline Photovoltaic Cells = $0.70/Watt

    • $1.4?

      In your wet dream.

    • THESE ARE THE NEW ESTIMATES BASED ON $ 1.09 PER WATT AS DISCLOSED BY 3RD PARTIES LATELY:
      ==============================================================================

      Sales of 2 GW at $ 1.09 per watt gives $ 2.1 billion

      Calculating net profit at 5% gives $ 105 million

      Less Interest & R and D 60 million

      Net Profit 45 million

      Shares o/s 40 million

      Net Profit per share $ 1.12 per share

      Trading at 30x profit gives $ 33 per share

      Return of 1000%

    • Latest news is that is $1.00/Watt and could go as low as $0.60/Watt. Solar Energy will be supplied by companies the size of CSIQ. They can handle the reduced pricing. Reduced prices means more orders

      • 2 Replies to phagedaboutit
      • stock_fundamental_analyst stock_fundamental_analyst Oct 11, 2011 7:57 AM Flag

        As the price of modules falls, the price of cells, wafers, poly falls too. Margins will be mostly preserved and the lower ASP will spur volume demand. The market is completely missing the mark by valuing solar companies as if they are going out of business. These irrational low valuations won't be around long. CSIQ also gets higher margins on value added services such as producing solar power plants. Because of this, they are better positioned than pure module makers, and I wouldn't touch companies that are not fully integrated. They could easily go away as the fully integrated companies produce more of their own cells, wafers, etc.

      • Lets play along with $ 1 per watt figure since the analysts say it will be hit in 2015, of course we will have quadruple the orders if price drops that far.

        Assuming status quo:

        2 GW per year at $ 1 per watt is $ 2 billion in revenue

        Profit is 5% of gross revenue so, $ 100 million

        Less R&D plus interest 60 million

        Net profit 40 million

        Shares o/s 40 million

        EPS $ 1 per share

        Trading at 30x earnings gives $ 30 per share


        Now as you say, at $ 1 per watt, sales should boom so one can expect 4GW to perhaps 6GW worth of orders.

        Plus vertical integration will be completed in early 2012 which means that net profit will not be 5% but more like a 10% due to reduced cost structure.

        No matter how you cut it, the price of CSIQ is undervalue, trading at 20% of its true value.

 
CSIQ
22.37+0.46(+2.10%)Dec 22 4:00 PMEST

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