Looking at how bad analyst’s past predictions have been every year concerning global demand, I decided to compile a summary of analysts demand estimates for the record, and update as they constantly change their mind, so I can keep track of their accuracy. They will be graded from Tier-1 to Tier-3 at the end of the year.
The recent solar bear article in Bloomberg; Solar Suppliers’ First-in-Decade Sales Drop to Feed Glut: Energy, By Ehren Goossens - Mar 9, 2012 3:07 AM ET, stated that:
“Homes and businesses will put up 24.8 gigawatts of solar panels worldwide, according to the average of six forecasts compiled by Bloomberg News...down 10 percent from the 27.7 gigawatts added last year.”
Now that’s a whopping 6 hand-picked analysts by know solar bear Bloomberg NEF...so consider the source (like Homer Simpson always said...if TV said that, it must be true!). So here are the bears’ comments;
“... Amir Rozwadowski, an analyst at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York...expects installations to drop to 20.7 gigawatts. “
“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates 20.8 gigawatts”
On the more positive side;
“The most optimistic forecast, from Maxim Group LLC, calls for 29.7 gigawatts of solar installations this year. That would be a gain of 7.6 percent.
“Shayle Kann, an analyst at GTM Research in Boston...expects 27.5 gigawatts of panels installed worldwide this year, about the same as in 2011.”
In the middle;
“New Energy Finance...expects installations to slip this year to 24.6 gigawatts.
“HSBC Holdings Plc forecasts 25.5 gigawatts.“
Obviously these estimates are all over the place.
Now, the biggest solar bear “surveyed” was Amir. A little background on Amir; he just started his coverage on the renewable energy sector a few months ago, Nov 11, 2011 (another Tier-3 newbee with no real experience or credentials in the industry that I could find). He doesn’t like solar, and his top 4 picks were TSLA, ELT, PWER, AMRC. As of Fridays close, they averaged 3.75% gains, compared to an average of 9.25% gains on CSIQ, TSL, STP, YGE, even after their recent huge sell-off.
So obviously, since his picks have underperformed significantly, there are some sour-grapes there.
Looking at the 2012 solar demand predictions from "analysts" just 3 months ago, it is already becoming pretty clear who is going to get the coveted nano's "2012 Solar Demand Crystal Ball" award, and who will get the embarrassing "2012 Solar Demand Cracked and Shattered Ball" award.
Looks like Maxim Group LLC and Shayle Kann/GTM Research are neck to neck on winning the Crystal ball award, while Amir Rozwadowski/Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs Group are tied for the Shattered Ball award.
I wonder if they've fired Shayle yet, and whoever made the bonehead 20.8 GW prediction at Goldmans...
20.7/20.8 GW predictions?...LOL...must be using the same "sources" as Jesse.
nano's 2012 "Solar Demand Crystal Ball" awards go to;
1st Place - Maxim Group LLC "calls for 29.7 gigawatts of solar installations this year"
Runner-Up - Shayle Kann, an analyst at GTM Research in Boston"expects 27.5 gigawatts of panels installed worldwide this year."
For the coveted nano's 2012 "Solar Demand Cracked and Shattered Ball" awards, there was a tie for 1st Place;
Tie 1st Place - Amir Rozwadowski, an analyst at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York "expects installations to drop to 20.7 gigawatts."
Tie 1st Place - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. "estimates 20.8 gigawatts"
Runner-Up - New Energy Finance "expects installations to slip this year to 24.6 gigawatts."
In addition, nano's 2012 "Solar Analyst's Foot in the Mouth" award, goes to our favorite Tier-2 analyst Mark Bachman (now with Avion Securities), for his famous comments back in early March when Qu announced that they were targeting 55c to 60c all-in costs by the end of the year;
“The cost roadmap of $0.55/Wp-$0.60/Wp by end-2012/early-2013 is, we believe, pure fantasy.”
From that point forward he became known as the "Fantasy Analyst"...