Photon consulting is the largest and most respected solar energy research firm in the business today. I just stumbled across this announcement on their site from Jan 18...it's basically selling their latest report, "Solar Annual 2012: The Next Wave". I certainly can't afford it, but they do talk about the overall market moving forward, and realized that;
THEY HAVE THE SAME VISION THAT I HAVE!
Ride the “next wave” – PV after 2012 Jan 18, 2012 BOSTON, MA – In a newly released report, Solar Annual 2012: The Next Wave, the PHOTON Consulting team forecasts that the current photovoltaic (PV) downturn (which the team has predicted since 2007) will be followed by a “next wave” of renewed PV demand. The “next wave” will be a period of tremendous, unprecedented growth with global installations reaching 46GW by 2015. Solar companies who take action now and look ahead will survive 2012 to thrive in the “next wave,” while many existing participants will fail and drown. Solar Annual 2012: The Next Wave looks ahead through 2015, and provides actionable steps in the midst of the current downturn, with a focus on engaging four “value levers” for reliable profit growth.
Today, the PV industry is facing a towering swell of overhanging capacity while being pulled down by an undertow of high inventory. Coupled with receding demand in Germany and Italy, this has resulted in a crushing environment for prices and profit, according to PHOTON Consulting’s 2012 global PV sector outlook report, Solar Annual 2012: The Next Wave.
“Solar power’s transition to widespread rate parity – while turbulent – is the start a new phase in the industry’s growth and global adoption. The current turmoil and the “next wave” will rationalize the industry’s supply-demand balance, bring needed solar electrification to new markets and create new opportunities for entrepreneurs, innovators and forward-thinking energy companies,” said Chris Bolman, senior analyst at PHOTON Consulting. “This report pinpoints and quantifies essential industry risks and opportunities.”
Photon's next wave prediction is materializing...just look at all the news lately about exploding global demand. The only thing photon is really off on though is the 46 GW in 2015...we should be close to that (40GW+) THIS YEAR!...I have 2015 at 60GW or more!
Best of all, from a stock holders perspective, this news is starting to spread to the general public. Last year there were many bears to support each other. Now, the few that are left, are standing alone, as their major talking points are now all crumbling under the facts of the huge solar global build-out taking place, which is attracting interest again from investors and funds looking for above average returns on their money in 2013 and beyond.
And when US investors look at solar companies to invest in, why not the one with well over $2 Bil. in hi-margin Rev. in the pipeline that's still valued close to bankruptcy, but will have significant positive EPS in 2H and beyond. That's why CSIQ is outperforming and will continue to do so...IMHO of course.
This demand curve I believe will soon pass the Tier-1/bankable "capacity" curve. It's becoming increasing apparent that most Tier-2's and Tier-3's are being squeezed-out now (this is being accelerated by many factors, including tariffs, minimum efficiency requirements, warranties, Chinese leadership and banks, etc.), . So when the bears talk about the "massive overcapacity" still out there, ask yourself if you think that's the total or bankable capacity they're basing their argument on.
I think I've mentioned this before, but this is just the beginning of a multi-year run for CSIQ, IMHO of course....