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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • solarcrunch solarcrunch Jan 16, 2013 9:49 PM Flag

    DONT FORGET!! CSIQ PUMP IS PRIMED!!

     System and Total Solution business represented ~10% of revenue
    in 2011; Expected to Represent 13% in 2012 and 50% in
    2013.
     Expect to build and sell 9 solar power plants totaling 86MWAC
    and valued at approximately C$470 million to TransCanada within
    the next 12-15 months.
     Announced late-stage project acquisition from
    SkyPower adding ~200MWDC to pipeline with expected revenue
    of over C$800 million to be recognized in the 2013-14 time-frame.
     Joint-Venture with SkyPower to develop projects in select international
    markets.
    Canadian Solar is on track to monetize
    25 solar power plants in Ontario alone in 2012-14,
    with an expected value of over C$1.3 Billion.

    *** This doesnt include everything else just announced and to be announced over the course of 2013!!!

    ****2013 is here, While Q4 wont be to great, we are 6 months away from blast off!!!!

    Dont forget MENA as well:

    On the back of these fundamental drivers, GTM Research, in collaboration with the Emirates Solar Industry Association (ESIA), forecasts the annual solar market in MENA countries to reach nearly 3.5 gigawatts by 2015 and comprise close to 8 percent of total demand globally that year.

    The clear majority of demand in the MENA region will originate in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, according to GTM’s report, Middle East and North Africa Solar Market Outlook, 2013-2017. Saudi Arabia promises to be the region’s first gigawatt-scale market by 2015. The report forecasts Turkey to be the second strongest market in the region in 2015 and beyond, as favorable renewables policies and previous wind installation experience is expected to translate into greater solar demand.

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    • Good summary SC. The US projects that are probably close to 300MW by now is another significant quickly growing project pipeline. But it all comes down to dollars and cents, so here they are;

      Approximate total known utility scale project revenue is $2.343 Billion, or $2.120 Billion after purchase prices. Average GM will be about 20% on Rev after deduct purchase price (18% based on total Rev). 2013 profit from projects is estimated at $228 Million, and 2014 is at $163 Million but that is expected to grow. Note that some of those 2013 profits may flow into 2014, depending on when the TransCanada project Rev is finally realized.

      With demand exploding across the globe, and prices look like they are not only stabilizing but increasing a little, I see no reason why the top tier solar companies can’t make money on module sales at some point this year. I can easily see module costs at 50c and ASP’s at 60c in 2H as efficiency and manufacturing progress continues. If this is the case, CSIQ could easily be making (excluding forex and taxes) $0.95 EPS in Q3 and $2.00 EPS in Q4.

      So if they even come close to these numbers (and they could actually exceed them, I still think I’m being conservative), what do you think CSIQ’s stock will be worth then? This is why I’m just sitting back and enjoying the run because based on the accumulation taking place, some of the big boys are starting to figure it out...glad I got my train ticket early.

      • 1 Reply to nanofrogfish_spf
      • Hey Nano,

        Thanks for that. Well, the market never seems to value these stocks correctly (chinese and solar are 2 things that dont mix well....lets see if that changes during the year). I have stated for probably 6 months already (with your figures) it would be ludicrous for this not to be in the double digits within 1 year. The way these stocks move up and down it could be sooner.

        Estimate: I am going to still say 12.00 PPS give or take 15% ($10-14) within 12 months. Do I think it could or should be worth more if they continue to fill in your spreadsheet as the year progresses. ABSOLUTELY YES!!. This would be low end based on what we already know...just a matter of what else they announce and what Q's the revenue hits. I personally think there will be alot more announcements this year (besides the one they already announced) MENA, South America, USA, China, CANADA, and Japan all awaiting deals to be made. CSIQ already announced one and its only Jan 15. **I am curious as to our facility in Japan and where we are at with it. I sent IR an email but have yet to hear back on that.

        If they continue announcing projects to fill in your spreadsheet and broaden 2014/2015 visibility this PPS could easily be 50-100% higher than my low end by April -May 2014! I am glad I got on the train as well. GLTY and start thinking about that bottle of expensive wine!!

 
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