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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • nanofrogfish_spf nanofrogfish_spf Jan 17, 2013 6:38 PM Flag

    Nomura Securities Upgrades CSIQ - PT $6.90.

    I still think this is low...maybe it's just a short-term target, and they want to take it one step at a time. It's interesting that Japanese-based Nomura upgraded TSL and JASO also. They probably have good visibility into that exploding and high margin market, and export shipment data seems to support that.

    CSIQ is trading in a very nice tight upwards channel since mid Nov. With this upgrade for support, CSIQ should see new 52-week highs tomorrow or early next week. And on a longer term chart looks like it could run for a couple more months without much resistance to the $8 to $10 area...and at that time, the EPS will be supporting it...and more in the years to come...IMHO of course.

    Very Nice!

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    • long term I agree with you but i think the Q4 and year end earnings in march will shut down any rally until better results start coming in from Q1

      • 1 Reply to chris.rouss
      • You could be right chris...and that's certainly what we've come to expect, and it's about the last argument left for the bears (it's a legit STEO concern, and day-traders can certainly play off that). But it's not like anyone expects Q4 to be good for any of the solars anyways, based on their own guidance.

        So the present rally is either due to the data coming out showing that Q4 was a record-breaker (IHS has it at 11GW!), which would allow for some upside surprises (even a bad report can be positive if it's better than expected). Or the rally could be due to the stabilization and even slight increases of selling prices across the supply chain, and the Chinese leaderships ambition of consolidating its industry (happening very quickly btw). Or due to the exploding global build-out that's just beginning (it's not just about Germany anymore), that's going to take global demand past 40 GW this year. Or they could be looking at the still close to bankruptcy valuations, and seeing the huge upside just around the corner. Or all of the above...

        Just remember, if everyone thinks the market is going to do one thing, it usually does the opposite. Everyone just assumed this was another "junk rally", and that it just has to go down again because there still is all that massive overcapacity out there and all the companies are going to lose money again in Q4. They've been saying that for over a month now as the sector continues to march higher...I'll actually be more worried when the bears give up on that argument.

        If the market is truly 6-months forward looking, then this rally will have legs. We've been down so low for so long, that people forget that CSIQ has traded above $10 for the far majority of it's history, and can go from $3 to $12 just as quickly as from $12 to $ a matter of months, supported by all the positive news that's now flowing from the sector from just about everywhere. There's only 30 mil. shares in the float, so when the big-boys want in, supply gets tight really fast.

        For now, I think the rally will continue to climb the wall of worry. Who knows how earnings will play out, or even the upcoming EU events. But I see big positive earnings later this year and into next, so regardless of the path I'm concentrating on the endpoint.

        Personally, I'm just going to ride the "nest wave" on the way up to the predicted 300GW in 2020...

    • We may see 6 tomorrow just knowing that TSL and JKS are upping production, over supply is on the mend, panel price stability is in sight and all the positive conclusions that can be drawn from news out tonight that TSL and JKS see 2013 production up 20-30%.

      "Trina expects profits to be generated from the business expansion after the second quarter, Wang said. "

      After several quarters of cutting costs and increasing efficiencies so as not to go out of business, solar companies still alive today are lean earnings machines.

      I have global demand numbers higher than any research I have read. So my guess is there will be more good news to come and $6.90 will be looking relatively inexpensive in a year's time.

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