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Canadian Solar Inc. Message Board

  • twoheadedsnake1234 twoheadedsnake1234 Mar 5, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Reasonable ER and guidance

    Modules shipment was int he range of my Peak into 2014. Projects are light by 50 to 100MW from my targets. from the Peak into 2014 thread. It should be noted the light projects was suggested as being conservative and they hope to exceed their guidance. In all the guidance at 20% margins still suggests $250M +/- net before adjustments or around $5 in EPS. The lower ranges at 18% GM could drive it down to $4.30. Slap a 10-12 PE and you should be around $43 to $60 price targets.

    CSIQ did stress they were conservative in their 2014 estimates which indicates upside. However project revenue did not track in 2013 like they gave at the start of 2013. So the track record is not perfect nor conservative from past history.

    In all the real lite Q1 guidance will hurt short term., I noted the bad weather as impacting shipments a couple of days ago on the JKS board. Q2 needs to be blowout and add in the $100M of missed shipments and added projects that were delayed else you might be upper $30's low $40;s for quite some time.

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