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United Technologies Corp. Message Board

  • kored35 kored35 Apr 30, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Home depot is red due to MBA index of applications for mortgage and refis falling to 24 year low

    Home depot is red due to MBA index of applications for mortgage and refis falling to 24 year low
    This is a leading indicator for construction of existing and new home sales...
    This confirms warning by Masco who makes faucets cabinets etc last week.
    And they tell me the fed is taking away the punch bowl so the next 90 days are going to be very interesting..

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    • Part of the decline in the mortgage index is due to the dearth of Re-Finance activity. Refinance doesn't seem to me to have much of a leading impact on construction; Re-Fi is done to reduce your costs on an existing residence. I don't expect that there is much re-fi activity underway to pull cash from existing properties these days, as was so common in the pre-bust days. Anyone who logically and financially COULD refi likely has long since done so. If you're still underwater, you can't do it financially; if you're only a few years from pay-off, you logically might not do it. I'm discounting the decline based on both the refi levels and the weather's impact in the short term. Now the longer term impact o fthe end of QE? That one remains to be seen, I do not have a crystal ball.

 
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