Found the CC. Maybe some were put off by their statement about payers. Something along the lines of "We expect tier 3 or better coverage by many payers." I might have hoped for something more favorable than that.
May not be profitable until 2013. Launch costs higher than expected, with large bills in 4th Q. I don't think these items came as a big suprise, but perhaps someone was expecting earlier profitability.
I think Jim S has now clearly steered people to think of DEPO as preparing and executing a plan to become a regular commercial pharma company launching and selling drugs. Hence 2-year product launches with typical associated costs and modest revenue ramps. Jason, or Scott Henry’s question about the differences in contract sales forces required for Serada vs. Gralise really brought this home – not much synergy and would require different CSO forces. On the other hand, because DEPO was caught flat-footed with no viable way to sell Gralise when ABT formally reneged on the contract, they had no ability to execute another big-pharma partnership. Carl Pelzel clearly had me (and, I think, most investors) waiting for “the rapture” – partnerships with big pharmas that would shower money in increasing annual amounts upon DEPO. Well, that didn’t happen! Jim seems to have a much more pragmatic, workmanlike approach – that hopefully will also facilitate the sorely needed “big pharma” partnerships.
But not too hard to see why an existing (or two) institutions would just decide to throw in the towel, though, which seems to have happened today. Carl had us all set up for an early dessert course.
Though the P3 Breeze 3 results are a huge risk IMO, it still seems like there’s a decent shot of a variety of good news and cash positive events over the next 9 months. Today's valuation seems more than supported by existing drugs and development deals. Hunker down and hope for good top-line news from Serada in October. Sigh, being an investor sure sucks sometimes…still hoping for a pony…