Thoughts on TWTR trade for last 2 days of the week
I don't have any position as i sold my calls today for good profit. I bought it when TWTR was at 59 yesterday and sold it today at 63.75. I am out as i think it will go either direction on Thursday.
According to me, On Thursday it wil pop 2-3 in first half hour and then it will tank and go down to 58-59 and will close at 60.
(1) Too high valuation without any profit will bring it down.
(2) Investor will start taking profit as they could not because of the Tax for 2013.
(3) Price is too high so most of the investor will like to bring it down for their position.
(1) To many short with 80 mil free shares, Short squeeze will move this stock up very fast
(2) Any good news from TWTR regarding growth and users.
I got burnt between $45-$50 thinking it was too high. My puts went to 0 which I recovered by buy puts on the day it went over $74. It was too quick too much run up. But, my feeling about TWTR is that longs are really strong in this stock and they won't let it go down much despite all the negative news and valuation tidbit. I bought some calls yesterday when it was trading $59.50 which I am still holding. Friday might be brutal due to option expiry, option writers might try to push it down to cut down the losses as they did last week using downgrade and other negative news. I will watch how it pans out and will sell before Friday or early morning Friday. I don't trust expiry day...
Twitters user base has lagged as compared to FB etc, doubt that it will suddenly explode. Its an old company and things don't change that fast. If the market cap was small, there is always a possibility of buy out but with this evaluation that's not possible. Recent market suverys regarding use base has not been good forTWTR compared to Facebook. Looks like we will have to watch this stock go down in coming year while greedy retail investors loose money. Professionals made money while it went up and they will do so down hill!
This can go way up or way down...no body will know until 930 am Thursday am.......I just deleted what I wrote,,I will just say this is crazy and the longs who bought at high 60's to 70's with crazy valuation are braver then me...
Buying crazy high and hoping to sell at very very crazy high is not for me