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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

  • theword414 theword414 Jun 8, 2004 4:32 PM Flag

    SOX reluctant to break keypoint

    This is the second time it's tried to push above the level but it isn't smshing through. If the SOX does not break it and falls again, it could fall down hard.

    It's walking on tight rope.

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    • I see what theword means on the SOX. You don't need fibonacci or elliott to figure this. Just draw a line connecting the highs on the 6month chart to see the stage4 decline. If it breaks 490 it will go on to 520. If it falls below 463 it will fall to maybe 415 or major support. This is making me nervous. We'll see tomorrow. If ADI goes to 52, maybe short some more to improve my breakeven. It will have to retrace atleast 50%. Next time I'll honor my stops. It's gone up too much for me to cover. Any other thoughts on damage control?

      • 2 Replies to greenlite86
      • "Any other thoughts on damage control?"

        Maybe you can get some July calls.

        The trendline has been broken definitively on the ADI and marginally on the SOX, and you might want a little protection on the upside if you are worried.

        If market sails up, you have the calls to save your butt.

        If market crashes down, you make money on your shorts but only lose premium on the calls.

        But if market crashes down and sails right back up all within a month and a half, you profit on the shorts AND the calls.

      • It never touched 490. Yesterday, it was a hairline right below it, and today, it opened at 489.41 and sailed right down. I rechecked the charts, and 490 was probably a little round up. Maybe 488 was more accurate, and we have certainly passed that, but the follow through is not there.

    • In all my charts the SOX has broken through, and so does ADI, more so. The nasdaq has as well, but just by 2 points. ADI can now hit the bottom of the old upward trendline. In my book all bets are off that we will hold the down trendline. If I short, I will be placing a bracket trade to buy just 1 to 2 times above the ATR in case I am wrong. In any entry you chance is 50/50 whether you get it right or not. ADI looks like it has broken to the up side, but I will reverse my bet if I am wrong! ..... Happy trading

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