DGAZer, let add the facts here to see if the current ng price is supported.
Don't let the fear monster to affect your view
Hype, hype hype
Do we have a supply problem? might be in the short term due to freeze off of gas wellheads but with the latest technologies all the gas wellheads are designed to work well under the cold weather. We'll see by tomorrow report.
Can we import ng from Canada? yes
Do we have a storage problem? yes, for years they can't come up with the solution to extend the storage so storage problem is here to stay.
Can they switch gas to coal if gas is getting so expensive? yes
Do you turn on your heater 24/7 at 10 degree? So what is the different in gas consumption in 10 degree and below 30 degree? You still turn your heater 24/7.
Polar vortex will be leaving soon and we are back to normal winter months.
there is a very good discussion on dgaz on the dgaz board of all places, under title "really confused". they are asking all the right questions and some good answers are being posted. there is a lot going on with this etf than the simple price of ng. i have no position, here is one of the posts-
""Re: DGAZ..the price decay this week was due exactly to what Pierre said. Had nothing to do with backwardation. DGAZ doesn't begin their rollover until the 5th business day of the month which is next friday, Feb. 7th. They do a 20% rollover for 5 consecutive days and by EOD on 2/13, they'll be 100% into April. I would imagine that holding DGAZ during this period would not be a good idea since April is currently trading at a 490 pt. discount to MAR. That means DGAZ would be buying back MAR contracts at a high price and selling APR at a much lower price. If you're involved with shorting UNG, check the rollover schedule""
A good food isn't good because it "just" looks good. It is good if you have a taste of it. I was down huge. But Kept buying it on the way down, now I am still about 5% down from current price. But I believe it will pass 4s, then 5s, then 6s.