As to you post, it is hard to keep up with the
competition on these high-techs. It seems when one company
has it hammered, a competitor comes along and does it
cheaper or better. I believe Intel will see some
competition from Korea perhaps or elsewhere. I also feel
Texas Instruments has had the semi-conductor business
well in hand, but may also get some stiff competition.
I am reading "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter
Lynch. Interesting phylosophy as Peter says the problem
with high-techs is there is always someone that comes
along and does it better and cheaper, he proposes
looking for the boring stocks that the analysts are
interested in (like the bottle cap business) - I am starting
to agree more and more with Peter on this. My
portfolio is proving this. Enjoyed your post.
When a company like ADI/LSI which were recently
for 20, 30 for close to 2 years, could not get
out...it makes me worry!
Semiconductor is such
complex technology driven business,
and only the
dumb-ass engineers running these companies
have the vision of how to consolidate, keep up
prices, and have more money and talent to
there is more cyclicality in
semiconductor business, (demand
for which is pretty
consistent and inevitable...LIKE FOOD...
keeps increasing) the best way to grow
is to consolidate and eliminate competitors
the most advanced technology nodes.
really reflected in PC cost structure...other than
and MICROSOFT every one is in a commodity business.
is fast sinking into a commodity like
Given normal market movements (ie. no more
Analog devices will go to 50 again before it goes
40. I would be a strong buyer to take the $10 for
This stock is about testing new highs. There is
of technology, market share to be of interest to
semiconductor vendors. DSP bandwagon is most important
of semiconductor market and I am surprised
has bought them out as yet.
I totally agree with the analysis. Depending on
condition it may gain or lose momentum. But its
ranking is still positive on WyseStreet website. Its
valuation is a bit high with low ranking, so there is
how much it could go up if it does. You may get more
on rankings or any other questions by asking
on WyseStreet site. Just go there enter symbols and
click ASK yourself. Good luck!
First let me disclose that I am a long time ADI
long and will remain so. The current technical picture
from the chart is at an interesting and critical
juncture (obviously only for those who adhere to technical
analysis).ADI this week broke through its 50day MA and today
closed precisely on the uptrend line established at its
low of 25 1/2 back on March 12, 1999. A bounce off
the trend line would be constructive and with a
subsequent upward penetration of 50 day MA I believe ADI
could challenge previous highs rather quickly. However,
further weakness from here could easily send it to mid
30s with a resultant technical damage that would take
much longer to repair and we may have then seen the
highs for this year. So, IMHO, we are at a critical
juncture. Personally, I look for it to hold here and have
been accumulating August Calls.