you must be smoking dope! this rally was nothing more than "dumb money" buying the sector on a day the dow was up 300pts and on the back of the rfs rumor that they will cut obligations significantly. Rins are down to about 28-30cpg. now let me explain something to you and the vlo ceo.
RINS were/are a cost. that cost can be passed through to the end user. that said, vlo #$%$ about rins costing 800m is untrue as that $$ was passed through. now lets say rins go to zero. what then? you will see more gasoline imports into the u.s. because importers no longer have to deal with that massive cost. then you have to content wilth a drop in diesel exports because there is less incentive to export bbls and avoid rin cost. net net, you will see the 211 come under serious pressure and crk spreads turn back lower as domestic supply swamps demand.
stupid money bought today. nothing changed for tso, mainly because their rin obligation was minimal to begin with. that said, they will however feel the full effect of lower margins which will be the result of an rfs revision. overall, today was a great opportunity to sell and that is what i did on the close. i did buy some 41.50 calls that expire tmmrw so the sale was mainly locking in that gain. i did put on a small "new" net short and only hope lemmings buy more tomorrow.
all the new length that came into the mkt today will be barfing out when we break $40 as earnings start coming out. $50 is a pipe dream.
All rallies start with short covering...Will be over 12M shares traded with most being bought yesterday and today... Shorts scrambling and smart longs buying...
You must look out 6 months, that is where the buying is coming from. Your brilliant assessments are already baked in...why do you think it corrected 35% it was no secret about all the junk you post!
WTI vs. Brent now almost $10 again and will more than likely be over that in another few weeks probably back around $12. Bakken is $10 - $15 under WTI or more, Uintah basin waxy crude (for the Utah refinery) at an even deeper discount to WTI and demand is flat in most of TSOs market except in southern Cal where it is ticking up.
But then again sooz, YOU have special insight and tea leaves and even proclaim you know more than Klesse, VLO's CEO. What refiner did you run again???
With your most recent post above, it appears you are getting nervous, why else do you continue to repeat old news and throw out the insults...