and very noticeable, is how detractors (with the exception of our friend pjv) are SHFL die-hards.... who would rather live in denial and defend the emperor's credibility, as he leads the parade of the duped, in his birthday suit?
btw pjv, I just want you to know that I absolutely salute and agree with your disposition towards finding short candidates.
In fact, as messley has posted, there are times and opportunities that do present themselves...no doubt. I just want to ask you to take a look at what I consider to be a key statement you posted from #1925 the other day.
(Quoting you, "The ride can be unnerving, but if you are really, really confident that a stock's price converges to its true value and that the true value is low, you'll make money.")
What I hope you'll accept as a given, is that the 'confidence' you refer to, must be based empirically, upon not only the complete examination of the past (your reliance upon SEC filings to be specific), but upon present conditions and future results as well. Now of course we cannot divine the future, so I guess I must not know what I'm talking about... gg
Good thing its Christmas break :)
Cranberry(grateful for tenure)vino
Leave it to you to belittle one of the best posts on this board...ever. CFA while not the be all to end all as to qualifications of stock analysis, does at least show a committment to learning how to take an objective view at data to determine valuation. Something that you obviously have a hard time fathoming. It is not based on butterflies and puppies and rainbows in the future. It is based on cold hard facts. As gramma slack so eloquently stated, WHAT IS GOING TO BE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT PRICE LEVEL.
Merry Christmas, and may all your pipe dreams be lead.
you my dear are a pompous piece of work.
but merry Christmas to you and yours,
I knew all about your CFA process when it was first created, and you have far too high an opinion of yourself in that regard. (just a little editorial observation, nothing personal)
now as to your incredible talent when it comes to overanalyzing the obvious... it ends there.
Come back in a bit and see just how wrong you were.
And Happy New Year to you!
I'm not a guy but a proud grandmother. I have 4 children and 6 grandchildren scattered around the country and I visit them often. I don't like to fly so I spend many hours on the road and nights in hotels. I try to find interesting small and micro-cap companies by looking through local papers that usually list quotes for locally-based public companies. Granted, not a high-tech search methodology, but it's fun for me. It is amazing how many small public companies are headquartered in out of the way small towns. About two months ago I stayed in Vegas on my way to Southern California and came across this company.
If I do post on a board I always open a new account and let one of my grandchildren choose the user name. I like my privacy so I open the account through a public IP address. I will close this account after this post because I have no further interest in this stock.
I only have opinions about the value of stocks based on the discounted net cash flows available to equity holders (the equity value) as opposed to the discounted net cash flows avaiable to total invested capital (often times refered to as enterprise value which includes the market value of debt). I have no problem with someone saying this stock could double in the short-term. After all, stocks go up when there are more buyers than sellers. It's really not very complicated. (You should tell your friend PJ to be careful. Even though this stock is grossly overvalued, he could still get burned by buyers and sellers that are not knowledgeable).
In the end, I firmly believe that the price of a stock will always rationalize at a level that is consistent with the discounted net cash flows available to equity holders considering reasonable projections, discount rates and terminal value. My view here is simply that, even with the use of extremely optimistic projections and assumming that management will in fact turn this around, it is impossible to generate enough net cash flows to provide adequate funds to serivce debt and dilution from derivative securities. That means there is no net cash flows available to existing equity holdes.
There is one way for those active on this board to quit arguing and get some real answers. Why don't one of you ask the following question of management on the next conference call: "I recognize that management is consumed with the process of turning this company around and getting to a position of at least being cash flow nuetral. I applaud your efforts thus far. However, have you done any sensitivity analysis to determine what levels of revenues and operating margins are required to retire existing debt, provide adequate working capital, provide adequate capx funding and provide additional net cash flows on a discounted basis that would support the current stock price?" Why don't one of you step up and ask that question? Although I haven't looked into this issue for this company, most small companies don't limit who can participate on a conference call because it's easier to deal with REG FD by allowing anyone to participate.
Okay, I'm done and these old bones are tired. Tell bama that a CFA is a Chartered Financial Analyst and is probably the most difficult financial designation to obtain. I was one of the first women to achieve this designation and I am proud of that fact. Tell the cran guy he needs to go to counseling. He is clearly insecure about something. And tell Bob he needs anger management sessions.
Good luck to all and Merry Christmas. Don't forget to visit or call your mother.
I would guess did not let his kids stray too far from the line while they were growing up.
In the area i grew up in there were only about 8 kids within a 2 mile walking range of my house around my age.1 family had 3 kids around my age & their parents were so strict on them it was unbelievable.As soon as both would go to work they would go crazy wild.
Now 1 is in prison for murder,another a bounty hunter & the other is in an interratial marriage & adopted her 4 kids & are on welfare.
sometimes overprotection is worse IMO.
Me i got a .30 caliber carbine for my 8th birthday & look how normal i turned out..<s>
NBbama, better hurry up. Gonna be too late to short (at these prices) soon. Now you have a PhD, an MBA, and a something-else to back up my words of wisdom. Go for it !!!
Are you kidding,the only thing that kept me out of college was the 10th,11th, & 12th grade.
Just read the news. Tragic. Dungy seems like a class guy, and I would guess did not let his kids stray too far from the line while they were growing up.
Probably a really good kid who made a really bad mistake.......
Funny bob. I've already answered that, but like you are so inclined to do, you don't listen or learn... so do some DD and maybe you'll find out the answer.
And if you'd like to join your new PHD bud, I'm all ears to hear your comparisons of the two processes :) but hurry will you? I've got errands to run, and would hate to have to wait till tomorrow to hear your answer.
>>I'm really looking forward to hearing!<<
Why don't you first tell us how a POS company like VNX got this magical RIFD technology ahead of companies like IGT, Aristocrat, SHFL,PGIC and others who actually have the talent AND money to find good technology before POS companies like VNX. I'm really looking forward to hearing!