Sorry, I must respectfully disagree with your conclusion.
Your post caused me to think. I went back through the last 5 years to 2007-2012 and pulled the historic prices from the first day of December through the last day of January. My research found your memory might be wrong.
I used the prices (high and low) of Dec. 1st. and Jan. 31st. Then I found the high and low prices for the month of Dec. I also did this for Jan.
The information I gathered showed me no diffident pattern. At times it is correct prices do as you suggested. At other times they don't. Either way the price fluctuation usually is not much, most of these fluctuations are less than 10%. To me these price fluctuation are not enough to even think about using it as a trading opportunity even if they had proved to ALWAYS work.
I would strongly suggest to anyone thinking of using this as a trading or shorting opportunity to do some research before you decide to do it.
my point to tank was that he was incorrect in his post that EGT will drop to a dollar and that it WILL drop a bit on tax selling but, that before the following Q it usually recoups its loss. 10% sounds about right... A 10 % gain in 2-3 months isnt a bad return. and as you accurately stated i also agree and strongly suggest D/D before anyone makes any type of trade.
Out of couriosity, if you kept the notes... what years showed what difference in pps... I was going on memory,
and my accuracy was for sure not spot on, [hense JMHO} but; I knew I was correct that what he posted was incorrect.
thank you for the constructive critisism... duly noted.... and not in any way insulted
I have the notes, but it is extremly difficult to post it on these messeage boards and have it make sence. (these boards do not allow spread sheets.) It would take me longer to post the results than what it would take you to do as I did. My conclusion was the tax write off idea was the same as any months of the same duration. All I saw was typical price fluctuation of any given month (or two). Sometimes, Jan. was higher highs, higher lows other times it was Dec. It was, as I said, no different than any other typical two month span I have looked at.