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Hyperion Therapeutics, Inc. (HPTX) Message Board

  • rrtzrealmd rrtzrealmd Feb 6, 2013 2:56 PM Flag

    Check out the annual report...

    ...of Medicis Pharmaceutical -- the company that sold HPTX its product -- for 2011...their TOTAL revenues for their non-dermatological products amounted to a whopping 45 million dollars fo ALL of 2011...

    ...besides ammonul and buphenyl, now their only other non-dermatological product was maxair -- a fairly widely prescribed asthma inhaler...

    ...now they don't break down the numbers any further but it's a reasonable bet that maxair accounted for most of thet 45 million dollars given the frequency of asthma to urea cycle disorders and other disorders where hyperammonia is an issue...

    ...so you have to figure that the ammonul and buphenyl revenues must have been at a MAXIMUM of around 10 million dollars...

    ...10 million dollars for the WHOLE year...

    ...so HPTX will have to compete to get a share of just 10 million dollars...

    ...even if they got it all and even if you allow a rich profit margin of 50%, HPTX would likely not make more 30 cents a share under the BEST of circumstances...

    ...and note that Ravicti is the ONLY product in their pipeline...

    ...so now ask yourself how much should anyone pay for a company with revenues of 10 million dollars and net profit of -- at best -- 5 million?...

    ....I bet it's a LOT LESS than 300 million bucks -- don't you agree?...

    ...HAW, HAW, HAW!!!...

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • rrtz - I think I've said my peace already. You clearly have a strong point of view and should by all means buy/sell based on those thoughts. I'd point out that we all have a common goal here - to predict where this stock is going for our own benefit and the benefit of others. You didn't reply to my post about non-inferiority yet, but I would actually check out what the NUCDF says because it's important. As for your comments above, future revenues boil down to a few questions:

      1. Patient population (1-2k in the US)
      2. Percentage of patients who will switch from NaPBA to Ravicti (Q: is Ravicti a better drug? I'd recommend going back to the literature here and read the NUCDF's take as above)
      3. Pricing (this was announced in the conference call: 250-275k/pt/yr)
      4. Years of exclusivity (per the press release last Friday, if the patent is awarded they'll have patent protection through 2032 - not bad)

      Please read this with an open mind - I try read your posts objectively through all the haw haw hawing and like them because they push me to think. But ask yourself what past Buphenyl revenues have to do with future Ravicti revenues, because there is actually no connection and that's a key thing to understand. Revenue = patients x pricing. The pricing is set already, the only question is patient uptake.

      • 1 Reply to fields59
      • ...HAW!!!...son, if naievty were gold, they'd probably have to lock your sorry behind up in Fort Knox!...HAW!!!...

        ...so let's see, MANAGEMENT says they expect "250-275K/pt/yr)?...management who no doubt wants their mountain of stock options to get into exercise range ASAP?...management who probably intends to sell a LOT more stock long before they ever earn a profit off of ravicti?...

        ...why sure!!!...makes good sense!...by the way, I got some excellent land in Florida -- prime development land!...gonna be worth a mint in a few years!!...if you want, I can get you in on the ground floor at an excellent price!!...whadya say?...HAW!!!!....

        ...anyway, as to cost, I thought they said it would be 250K-290K per year...but haven't they ALSO said something to this effect:

        "Hyperion estimates that 40% of their patients with have Medicaid as their primary insurer, 35% Medicare Part D, 20% private commercial insurance, and the remaining uninsured. Hyperion stated they will have a call center in place to help uninsured and under insured patients obtain coverage."

        ...now do you REALLY believe that Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance will pay 250K-290K a year for a drug that is "non-inferior"?...

        ...cuz' if you do, then you're just stupid beyond hopeless,,,

        ...because bear in mind that HPTX CANNOT -- I repeat "CANNOT" -- claim ANYTHING beyond non-inferiority at this point in time...to be able to do that would require further studies...

        ...and to a third party reimburser, "non-inferior" is ALL that matters in deciding what they're willing to pay for...

        ...we don't care what no stinkin' "NUCDF" thinks cuz -- guess what! -- they ain't payin' the bills!...HAW!!!...

        ...like I said, Medicis bought the drug for 23 million dollars FOURTEEN years ago and then turned around in 2007 and sold the rights to Hyperion for -- drum roll please -- 10 million dollars...

        ...you got that?...TEN million dollars!!...

        ...that's right, Medicis took a 13 MILLION dollar LOSS just to get rid of the drug -- I guess they didn't realize they could make upwards to $300,000 a patient off of it, huh?...

        ...sorry, son, but you've been played!...HAW!!...

        ...but don't feel too bad -- biotechs are the best con artists in the universe!!...HAW, HAW, HAW!!!...

 
HPTX
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