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National Presto Industries Inc. Message Board

  • FreeCashFlow FreeCashFlow Mar 17, 2000 11:34 AM Flag


    1. By the time the NASDAQ reaches 6000, Britney
    Spears will have gray hair. I know I said the same thing
    about NASDAQ 4300 and 5000, but I will be right this
    time. Really. :)
    2. By the time the DJIA reaches
    12,000, Leonardo DiCaprio will be using Centrum
    3. The DJIA, S&P 400, and S&P 500 will lose 85%-90%
    in the coming bear market.
    4. The vast majority
    of Internut stocks will lose at least 99% of their
    value. (Just don't ask me which ones.) If bear markets
    are tornadoes, then Internut stocks are mobile
    5. At the bottom of the next bear market, all of
    today's bulls will have a mysterious case of amnesia when
    you try to justify the next bull market with low
    valuations and the productivity that technology
    6. NPK management will FINALLY scrap the dividend
    and sell products online.
    7. Warren Buffett will
    buy NPK.
    8. With or without Warren Buffett, NPK
    stock will skyrocket. Just don't ask me when.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I think NPK is still buying its stock back but at a very slow rate. With such a low price and so much cash, they could afford to be much more agressive in their buyback program such as SKY and TPL.

    • Anyone know if NPK is still repurchasing their stock? They have over $230 million in cash,about $30 a share in cash and no long term debt.

    • FreeCashFlow has once again demonstrated his
      willingness to make predictions that are either wrong or

      Free, what you fail to understand about
      the internet stocks is the fact that they are
      supported by more than just the wackiness of the people
      buying the stocks. Many are optionable or contained in
      indexes or also have convertible securities outstanding.
      Thus, there is a vast amount of hedging underway and
      the price changes (up or down) are most welcome.
      Clearly many will fail simply because the business models
      are ridiculous, but that's not equivalent to
      investors taking a beating, which seems to be your mantra.
      Many investors have set the stage to profit from the
      coming declines in these equities. And if you care to
      know which ones are headed down, a good list to review
      was published in the latest Barron's.

      cares if NPK sells products online? Don't forget they
      are not currently prepared to operate as an online
      retail operation. Not that they couldn't afford to
      attempt such a strategy, but the ossified management has
      no history for such departures from the
      tried-and-true. However, the tried-and-true has become the TIRED
      and true!

      Warren Buffett wouldn't bother with
      an issue having such a small market capitalization
      and limited growth prospects. But if he thought he
      could get his hands on the balance sheet to shake loose
      some of the cash, he might give it a thought. But then
      wouldn't we all.

      Free, one of the reasons stocks go
      up is investor enthusiasm for exciting corporate
      strategies. Even a kitchen utensil business can be exciting
      in the right hands. But NPK won't generate any
      excitement until the current management releases its
      stranglehold on corporate direction. You are right about the
      possibility of the share-price rising. It might eventually
      rise because the management won't last forever, and
      the change might spark interest. But the day might
      arrive when a foreign competitor rolls into town and
      drives NPK out!

      • 1 Reply to stockholderrevolt
      • Just kidding, just could not resist. I do not
        fully agree with either free cash flow or
        stockholderrevolt, but I am much closer to free cash. Here is where
        I agree and disagree:

        1) The Nasdaq is
        ridiculously overvalued. I think certain sectors will lost
        80-90% of their value. I just do not know when.
        Furthermore, prices could double from here prior to the
        decline beginning. In other words, I think free cash flow
        is much too confident that the Nasdaq will not reach
        6000. However, the larger the bubble gets, the bigger
        ultimate fall will be when fundamentals return to the

        2) The dow will not lose anything near what the
        nasdaq will lose. Many of the "old economy" stocks are
        attractively priced currently. While a meltdown in the nasdaq
        very well could bring the whole market down, another
        possibility is a massive sector rotation, where money fleeing
        from the nasdaq could flow to the currently unloved
        sectors of the market. We saw some of this in last weeks
        market. Nonetheless, even in a complete meltdown
        scenario, the Dow would lose nowhere near what the nasdaq
        would lose.

        3) Stockholderrevolt's attempt to
        make the case that a meltdown would benefit many
        investors is riduculous. While a select number of investors
        would benefit from a market meltdown, the vast majority
        of the market is long these stocks, many on margin,
        and would be wiped out by a significant bear market.
        Those that would benefit would be an extremely small
        minority (maybe 1/10 of 1%, at the most).

        4) NPK is
        a compelling value, and I hope (since I am long)
        that the stock price will at some point reflect this
        value. However, I believe (as stockholderrevolt does)
        that we have a managment that is completely
        uninterested in building shareholder value. Buffett plays
        close attention to allocation of capital, and the
        management of NPK have done a pathetic job of managing the
        capital of this organization. Rather than allowing the
        cash to sit in interest bearing securities, either a
        special dividend (and I am not talking .10 a share) or a
        massive stock repurchase program would be a much better
        use of capital. I for one would vote for repurchasing
        the shares at their current price. Since we are
        almost trading below our cash value, that would seem to
        be a good use of corporate assets. Until management
        catches a clue, this stock could languish below its
        intrinsic value for years.

        I enjoy this board, at
        least the spammers dont bother to post


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