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  • stockholderrevolt stockholderrevolt Jun 3, 2000 7:10 AM Flag

    Predictions

    On 3/20/00 fivehawks made the following
    statements which cover everything and nothing.

    He
    stated -- "1) The Nasdaq is ridiculously overvalued. I
    think certain sectors will lose 80-90% of their value.
    I JUST DO NOT KNOW WHEN. FURTHERMORE, PRICES COULD
    DOUBLE FROM HERE PRIOR TO THE DECLINE BEGINNING. In
    other words, I think free cash flow is much too
    confident that the Nasdaq will not reach 6000. However, the
    larger the bubble gets, the bigger ultimate fall will be
    when fundamentals return to the market."

    The
    Nasdaq has rebounded 20% from its low. The Dow has
    rebounded 10%. Both are down 6% year to date. In other
    words, both demonstrate volatility commensurate with
    their inherent risk.

    If fivehawks is buying
    Biogen, a stock in one of the most "overvalued" sectors
    of Nasdaq, he doesn't listen to his own rantings
    about "certain sectors will lose 80-90% of their
    value."

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Thank you for your thoughts on the biotechnology
      sector. Fortunately, I did not buy the whole sector, just
      Biogen. Biogen has $700 in cash, virtually no debt, has
      made $1.88 per share over the past 12 months, and I
      bought more in the mid to low 50's.

      Growth at a
      reasonable price.

      FiveHawksters

    • It is becoming clear to me that you are someone
      that happily twists facts in any way to suit your
      arguement. You quoted my post of 3/20/00, but only in part.
      The next sentence in my 3/20/00 post, which you left
      off, read: "The dow will not lose anything near what
      the nasdaq will lose. Many of the "old economy stocks
      are attractively priced currently".

      You can
      twist the facts and play your word games all you want,
      but my basic points were very clear:

      1) The
      Nasdaq was ridiculously overvalued.
      2) I had no idea
      how big the bubble would get before it would burst
      (as it turned out, not much bigger)
      3) The Dow
      would hold up much better that the Nasdaq.

      I
      posted on 3/20/00. At the close of market Friday the
      nasdaq had dropped 17.3% since my post, while the Dow
      had rose 1.1%.

      So go ahead stockholderblather,
      quote my post out of context, provide comparable
      performance numbers for the nasdaq and dow for periods that
      had nothing to do with my prediction, twist away
      buddy. You can feel free to waste you own time, you are
      not going to waste any more of
      mine.

      FiveHawksters

      • 1 Reply to fivehawksters
      • Fivehawks seems to enjoy his selective amnesia.


        His post from 3/20 included the following:

        "1)
        The Nasdaq is ridiculously overvalued. I think
        certain sectors will lost 80-90% of their value. I just
        do not know when. Furthermore, prices could double
        from here prior to the decline beginning. In other
        words, I think free cash flow is much too confident that
        the Nasdaq will not reach 6000. However, the larger
        the bubble gets, the bigger ultimate fall will be
        when fundamentals return to the market.

        2) The
        dow will not lose anything near what the nasdaq will
        lose. Many of the "old economy" stocks are attractively
        priced currently. While a meltdown in the nasdaq very
        well could bring the whole market down, another
        possibility is a massive sector rotation, where money fleeing
        from the nasdaq could flow to the currently unloved
        sectors of the market. We saw some of this in last weeks
        market. Nonetheless, even in a complete meltdown
        scenario, the Dow would lose nowhere near what the nasdaq
        would lose."

        The above passages cover most of
        Fivehawks non-predictions.

        Fivehawks has a clear
        grasp of the obvious. The Dow is a far less volatile
        indicator than the NASDAQ Composite. The Dow's components
        have huge market capitalizations and its 30 members
        have well diversified operations. The Dow is a
        price-weighted index. Many argue that price weighting is out of
        date. After all, the market is market
        weighted.

        Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has over 4,000 members.
        Some, like Microsoft, have huge market capitalizations
        and can easily swing the index. Most are very small
        and have little effect on the daily composite figure
        despite their own huge price swings. The Nasdaq is a
        market-capitalization weighted index. Microsoft is over 6% of this
        index of over 4,000 members. But it is merely 3.5% of
        the Dow 30.

        All told, Fivehawks is confident
        the Dow components are less likely to crash and burn
        than members of the Nasdaq Composite. Wow. What
        insight!

        And as for Fivehawks comment about buying Biogen,
        well, based on his statement, I'm sure his overall
        position is underwater.

        Thus, Nasdaq performance
        can be skewed by the movements of a few large stocks.
        The Dow isn't so vulnerable.

        Further,
        Fivehawks alludes to "sector rotation" as a flow of capital
        from the Nasdaq to the Dow. Sorry, that's not sector
        rotation, since the same sectors are represented to some
        degree by both indexes. But there are no small-cap
        issues in the Dow.

 
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