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National Presto Industries Inc. Message Board

  • fivehawksters fivehawksters May 22, 2000 7:56 PM Flag

    StockholdersRevolt - where are you???

    Stockholders revolt has been a little quiet
    lately (maybe he is busy covering his margin calls).
    About two months ago, we engaged in a brief debate, an
    I am going to provide an update. On March 20, I
    stated that "the Nasdaq is ridiculously overvalued", and
    "the dow will not lose anywhere near what the nasdaq
    loses". StockholderRevolt, in a response that was very
    hard to follow (I do not think logic is his/her
    forte), compared me to a chicken little who always thinks
    the sky is falling.

    Since March 27, the Nasdaq
    is down 27%, while the Dow is down around 1%. Any
    comments now Mr Revolt????????

    One other comment -
    I did something I have never done before - I dumped
    my position in NPK after reading the letter to the
    shareholders in the annual report. I think I sold around 33
    1/4 (the stock jumped up around a point on the day I
    sold, which is typical).

    After reading the
    letter to the shareholders, I realized that although on
    paper NPK offers a compelling value, I did not have
    enough confidence in management to invest money with
    this company. I found their letter to be petty and
    ridiculous. They actually blamed many of their problems on
    the study that was published regarding NPK's lack of
    attention to shareholder value. If a management team cannot
    present themselves in a reasonably capable light in an
    annual report, where they are in complete control of the
    environment, then in my view you are dealing with incapable
    people. Clearly others have reached the same conclusion,
    or why else would this company be trading at below
    net cash value. It takes a tremendous amount of
    negative input from management to create such a
    situation.

    To all of those who are still long (which includes
    my parents), I wish you the best and I genuinely
    hope that a catalyst of some kind creates a more
    realistic stock price for this company. Who knows, if it
    gets low enough I may not be able to resist nibbling
    again in the future.

    FiveHawksters

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Stockholderrevolt yesterday:

      "You
      statements clearly your view that the MARKET was heading for
      a collapse. In fact, that has not
      happened."

      It hasn't?? The Nasdaq is now down almost 50% from
      its high in March. That does not constitute a
      collapse to you?? What would it take - a drop of 95%? Give
      me a break!!

      And for the record, even in this
      statement you twisted my meaning. I predicted the Nasdaq
      was headed for a tumble, since it is so dominated by
      high tech companies that were so overvalued last
      March. As to the rest of the market, I predicted that
      the Dow would probably hold up well, since it
      primarily made up of old economy stocks, which were much
      more reasonably valued.

      I just reread my post
      of 3/20 one more time - I cant read it enough. What
      a prediction!

      FiveHawksters

    • The Nasdaq was not overvalued, some stocks were?
      That is your great insight into the discussion.
      Well....Duh!!! Maybe, since it is down around 42% since my 3/20
      post, a few more stocks were overvalued than
      undervalued. Come to think of it, that was my point in the
      first place. Hello - Stockholderrevolt - are you
      getting this?

      As for long term versus short term
      forecasts, it was a long term forecast because I stick with
      my original point (again on 3/20) that no one can
      accurately predict short term market movements. The fact
      that it came true so quickly is a bonus.

      As
      for Biogen, why would you assume that my original
      purchases were for more than 55? Biogen has spent 95% of
      its public life at prices below 55, but for sake of
      the arguement you assume I just happened to purchase
      mine during that brief time that it was over 55.
      Another one of your illogical, and incorrect assumptions.
      I am a long term investor, and originally purchased
      Biogen in 10/97 at a split adjusted basis of around
      16.5. Good try though.

      Maybe your just mad that
      you did not listen to me. Best of luck in the future
      - it will come back eventually. And, as long as you
      are not invested on margin, you can wait it
      out.

      Hang tough - FiveHawksters

    • A few months ago Fivehawksters engaged me in a
      debate about the near-term future of the NASDAQ
      Composite and the Dow Industrials. He puffed himself up
      with the following statements. On March 20, he stated
      that "the Nasdaq is ridiculously overvalued", and "the
      Dow will not lose anywhere near what the nasdaq
      loses".

      I compared Fivehawksters to Chicken
      Little, who always thinks the sky is
      falling.

      Following our original exchange the Nasdaq dropped about
      27%, hitting bottom on May 23, then posting an
      impressive rebound. Meanwhile, the Dow has edged down all
      year.

      And where are the two averages today?
      Well, they are both down a few percent year-to-date.
      The NASDAQ has rebounded and the Dow has continued to
      slip.

      Fivehawksters, you are still full of
      crap!

      • 2 Replies to stockholderrevolt
      • Hello Stockholderrevolt,

        Have not checked
        on board in quite some time, I have been laughing my
        ass off at some of your previous posts. Naturally, my
        favorite was your September 24 post:

        "A few months
        ago Fivehawsters engaged me in a debate about the
        near term future of the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow
        Industrials. He puffed himself up with the following
        statements. On March 20, he stated that "the Nasdaq is
        ridiculouosly overvalued" and "the Dow will not lose anywhere
        near what the Nasdaq loses"."

        "I compare
        Fivehawksters to Chicken Little, who always thinks the sky is
        falling."

        And you had a strong finish - "FiveHawksters, you are
        still full of crap!".

        Good stuff
        Stockholderrevolt. Lets get a current update.

        Since my post
        of March 20, the Nasdaq has fallen from 4610 to
        2880, a loss of 37.5% (after a significant recovery
        last Friday). During that same period, the Dow has
        fallen from 10,631 to 10,546, a loss of 1.2%. There is
        not a serious financial commentator who now does not
        acknowledge that the Nasdaq was very overvalued during the
        Spring, many have used the term "bubble" to describe the
        market at that time. Sadly, these types of market
        conditions are usually only apparrent to most market
        participants (such as yourself) after the fact, resulting in
        significant losses of capital.

        Since you have been
        such an antagonist, I will also tell you that I have
        had an outstanding year this year, because I
        completely ignored the highflighers in the Spring. I have
        recently begun to move some of my assets into the growth
        sector (admittedly a little early in some
        cases).

        It did not make me a chicken little to observe what
        I thought was a very obvious market condition in
        the Spring, and I am much better off financially for
        it. To be successful in the market you must be
        capable of independent thought, and not always go with
        the prevailing wisdom.

        Be a man and admit you
        were wrong, we will all respect you more for it.
        Alternatively, you could do an Al Gore imitation and continue to
        fight in spite of what the crystal clear facts are
        telling you.

        Respectfully - FiveHawksters

      • Stockholder-

        I admire the insights that
        you provide when we discuss NPK, among other stocks.
        I also hate hearing from Chicken Little types who
        predict the sky is falling, as you mention in your note
        to fivehawksters.

        However, fivehawskters may
        have been right on March 20. The NASDAQ closed at 4600
        or so that day. It's now down to 3767. The DJIA
        closed at 10680 on that day while it is actually up a
        little from that close. Yes, the NASDAQ has rebounded
        from it's low in May, but not back up to its March 20
        close.

        So, while folks like you and I are correct to silence
        the naysayers, we may as well get our facts right
        when we do it.

        AG

    • For one who previously argued the merits of
      long-term investing (in the short run, the market is a
      voting machine, in the long run, a weighing machine),
      you seem to be off on a tangent citing short-term
      market statistics. Year to date the NASDAQ Composite is
      down about 15% and the Dow is down around 10%. Neither
      number is one to bring joy but, all things considered,
      the two figures are not very far apart. Furthermore,
      you have no idea where either figure will land over
      the next 12 months.

      The market is not a
      balance sheet or an income statement. The only points of
      measurement are the arbitrary points we pick to suit our own
      arguments. But one fact is certain: the long-term trend is
      up.

      And a closer look at the NASDAQ shows that only a few
      of the eight component groups are taking the bulk of
      the beating. Telecom, computers and biotech have
      fared worst in recent months. Within Telecom and
      Computer groups are the Internet issues which have been
      slammed. What a shock! Most of the other NASDAQ sectors
      have held steady. The Oil & Gas group has been
      rising.

      You have absolutely no basis for asserting that
      investors are absorbing painful losses. Meanwhile, NPK has
      dropped 25% over the last 12 months, and much of that
      loss came in the last week following the admission
      that cheaper imports are cutting deeply into NPK's
      markets.

      Keep in mind that many of the internet issues that
      have dropped sharply in recent months still trade well
      above their year-ago prices. NPK, the "conservative"
      stock, trades well below its May 1999 level.

      This
      company made a devastating admission in its announcement
      that WalMart has deeply reduced its orders.

      A
      few posters suggested that the company could find new
      outlets for the merchandise which will no longer be sold
      at WalMart. Ridiculous! Why would NPK have any more
      luck finding new outlets now if it couldn't do so
      prior to Walmart's decision?

      WalMart is very
      tough with the suppliers it chooses to deal with.
      WalMart allows its suppliers to make a fair margin, but
      it almost always has multiple suppliers to help
      ensure competition and favorable pricing.

      • 3 Replies to stockholderrevolt
      • Welcome back,

        So many words, so little
        said. There was nothing "arbitrary" about the point I
        picked from which to measure the relative performances
        of the Nasdaq and the Dow - they were measured from
        the day that I predicted that both would fall, but
        the Nasdaq would fall much farther (March 20). I
        agree that it has only been a short period of time, and
        I was frankly a little surprised at how quickly and
        viciously the Nasdaq corrected. However, from the date of
        my prediction, the Dow will not only outperform the
        Nasdaq short term, but will also outperform the Dow
        longer term (lets say 5 years).

        We will see how
        things turn out.

        FiveHawksters

      • Wal-Mart's loss is a big psychological negative.
        But how many of you realize just how miserable it is
        to do business with this giant.
        They pay slowly,
        expect ridiculous terms, ask impossible shipping and
        warehousing arrangements and in general squeeze at every
        opportunity.
        Yes, the volume helps. but NPK is not a
        company that has such large production runs that big
        volumes have a giant impact on gross profits.
        It may
        surprise investors to learn NPK's profits don't budge at
        all, despite WMT's loss.

      • "Keep in mind that many of the internet issues
        that have dropped sharply in recent months still trade
        well above their year-ago prices. NPK, the
        "conservative" stock, trades well below its May 1999
        level."

        Don't you mean May 1991?
        :-)

        http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NPK&d=my

 
NPK
63.07-0.58(-0.91%)Jan 28 4:02 PMEST

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