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Infosonics Corp. Message Board

  • integratedcommsolutions integratedcommsolutions Sep 28, 2006 8:40 PM Flag

    analyst estimate

    yeah looks like she is expecting an excellent Q3Q4 AND 2007
    I really hope selloutloser is short

    Analyst Estimates Get Analyst Estimates for:

    Earnings Est Current Qtr
    Sep-06 Next Qtr
    Dec-06 Current Year
    Dec-06 Next Year
    Avg. Estimate 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    No. of Analysts 1 1 1 1
    Low Estimate 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    High Estimate 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    Year Ago EPS N/A 0.06 0.19 0.34

    Revenue Est Current Qtr
    Sep-06 Next Qtr
    Dec-06 Current Year
    Dec-06 Next Year
    Avg. Estimate 76.02M 98.50M 286.93M 510.39M
    No. of Analysts 1 1 1 1
    Low Estimate 76.02M 98.50M 286.93M 510.39M
    High Estimate 76.02M 98.50M 286.93M 510.39M
    Year Ago Sales N/A N/A N/A 286.93M
    Sales Growth (year/est) N/A N/A N/A 77.9%

    Earnings History Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06
    EPS Est N/A N/A N/A N/A
    EPS Actual 0.06 0.06 0.08
    Surprise % % % % %

    EPS Trends Current Qtr
    Sep-06 Next Qtr
    Dec-06 Current Year
    Dec-06 Next Year
    Current Estimate 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    7 Days Ago 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    30 Days Ago 0.08 0.12 0.34 0.59
    60 Days Ago 0.09 0.12 0.33 0.59
    90 Days Ago 0.10 0.13 0.33 0.59

    EPS Revisions Current Qtr
    Sep-06 Next Qtr
    Dec-06 Current Year
    Dec-06 Next Year
    Up Last 7 Days 0 0 0 0
    Up Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
    Down Last 30 Days 0 0 0 0
    Down Last 90 Days 0 0 0 0

    Growth Est IFON Industry Sector S&P 500
    Current Qtr. N/A N/A N/A N/A
    Next Qtr. 100.0% N/A N/A N/A
    This Year 78.9% N/A N/A N/A
    Next Year 73.5% N/A N/A N/A
    Past 5 Years (per annum) 4.4% N/A N/A N/A
    Next 5 Years (per annum) N/A N/A N/A N/A
    Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories) 17.6 N/A N/A N/A
    PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories) N/A N/A N/A N/A

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    • >>and somehow you morons can manage to argue even about what their filings say.

      And you can't because you're a dumb fuck little sissy

    • Actually no, I'm not Latin American. If I were, I might actually have better insight into IFON's markets. But I don't. All I can see is their public filings. And somehow you morons can manage to argue even about what their filings say.

    • haha. You can certainly disagree with whether historical performance is relevant, but you can't call me a liar without at least pointing out which of my statements was a lie. If you don't believe anything I wrote, just go back and check the old 10-Q's. All I did was look at past performance and list it in a single post. Why is that so painful for you?

    • Blue Devil is a stupid fucking liar and moron. Go sell this pile of shit to widows and orphans asshole.

      NO ONE cares what this did last year. An entire post of what already happened, IDIOTS and cold calling low lifes here. Probably drug dealers at night.

    • Jackass (and I think I'm being generous here), these are the facts:

      Q1 '05: $24.0M
      Q2 '05: $32.5M
      Q3 '05: $54.2M
      Q4 '05: $35.0M
      Q1 '06: $54.1M
      Q2 '06: $58.3M

      Q1 + Q2 '05 = $56.5M
      Q1 + Q2 '06 = $112.4M
      Year-over-year growth rate (first half '06 over first half '05) = 99%

      Please learn to do simple math before you start throwing around your growth rate calculations.

      HOWEVER, the thing that might concern IFON longs is that the Q2 vs. Q1 comparison is not as favorable in '06 as it was in '05. If you look at '05, Q2 was $8.5M or 35% stronger than Q1, while in '06, Q2 was only $4.2M or 8% stronger than Q1. As a long, this makes me wonder if growth might be slowing. But one quarter doesn't make a trend, so Q3 will be very important.

      Speaking of Q3, note that Q3 was $18M stronger than Q2 in '05. Add $18M to the Q2 '06 number and what do you get - $76M. And guess what the analyst estimate is for Q3 '06? $76M!!!

      This is not rocket science. The analyst is seeing the same numbers we are, and assuming the same kind of trend this year as we saw in last year's numbers. He/she could've taken percentage growth rates from last year and applied them to this year, but they chose to go the slightly more conservative route and use absolute growth numbers instead (i.e. adding $18M to Q2 to get Q3). I say this is a slightly conservative approach when it comes to forecasting, but it's still pretty aggressive when you consider that $18M is no joke, especially when we see the Q2 vs. Q1 trend. IFON will have to execute well to hit $76M. Let's just see if they succeed.

      I rest my case.

    • Why is it you started a new thread kid? Cut and paste with ZERO analysis. You know NOTHING.

      You didn�t want to respond to the FACT the Kaufman analyst doesn�t support the BS on this message board?

      All we hear on this board is 100% growth, 5% margins, bla bla. That IS NOT supported by even the analyst�s numbers.

      The math is right here:

      The analyst�s numbers would require 55% growth to reach their expected target. 55% does not equal 100% DUH!

      This arena is seasonal. The 4th Q is traditionally better than the other Q�s. You will sometimes see these companies stuff the channel in the 3rd Q �to anticipate needed inventory for the expected 4th Q� bla bla bla. I�ve heard it too many times, broken record. Then when performance in the 4th Q drops they claim demand was off for some ridiculous reason and the 3rd Q stock up was possibly overenthusiastic. They usually blame some lame occurrence; in this case I�d expect something like �the market avoided upgrading to new phones due to uncertainty over the abduction of Juan Valdez� mule�

      But the point being if the final Q�s of the year are the strongest, that seasonality gain makes true �expected� growth (according to the analyst�s numbers) even lower than 55%, perhaps 15-20% lower. Even the mathematically proven 55% number is a huge drop in growth projection compared to the 100% this board is pumping, but in reality it�s less than that, perhaps 35% growth, and that�s assuming this continues to grow, something that cannot be assumed in such volatile countries. I�ve seen it before, stuff the channel, claim all is well, then 2-3 Q�s later huge drop-off and often write-off�s due to obsolete inventory from the previous stuffed channel.

      • 1 Reply to sellhighcoverlow
      • blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Sep 29, 2006 10:55 AM Flag

        I don't know what the growth rate should be, but I can say that your claim of 55% growth only helps the pumpers. You're claiming 55% growth from the first half of the year to the second half. A pumper could easily take that and double it for the full year, and suddenly you're north of 100%. And clearly that would be false given the seasonality of sales in this market.

        It would be much more helpful if you were to look at the growth rate of Q1/Q2 2006 versus Q1/Q2 2005. Can anyone tell me what this YOY comparison shows?

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