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LSİ Anonim Ortaklık Message Board

  • KC_Daytrader KC_Daytrader Aug 11, 2008 11:12 AM Flag

    The Problem With the Tech Sector

    The advent of the PC, the Internet, and wireless created an explosion of tech companies popping up out of nowhere.

    Just like Henry Ford's "horseless carriage" did in the early 1900's when there were over two hundred American manufacturers of the automobile. Today there are three.

    Among the thousands of tech companies, only two have emerged as "King of the Hill" with a virtual lock on their respective spaces: Microsoft and Intel. The other few thousand are competing for their small share of a market that is no longer growing at the pace we enjoyed during the rollout of the Internet and the proliferation of wireless.

    To be blunt - there are too many tech companies out there today.

    Now one could argue "gee, KC - technology is here to stay!"

    Of course it is. Just like the Ford, Maytag washing machines, and the Big Mac. But where will the *growth* come from? What comes next after the PC, Internet, and wireless? What will be the fuel that will propel the tech sector back into the days of making money by throwing a dart at a list of tech companies?

    Those looking for a return to those days have not yet recovered from their sickness of "irrational exuberence." Wall Street and many investors/traders learned the painful lesson that EARNINGS and the future potential thereof is what moves stock prices.

    LSI is a small fish in a huge ocean. And there is a lesson to be learned by the 200 U.S. automakers dwindling down to only three today:

    Only the strong survive.



    KC

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    • As with the Auto industry, expect to see further consolidation within the semiconductor space. I expect we will see the king of the microprocessors, Intel. The king of memory, maybe Samsung... other areas of consolidation will be in the power management sector. Vishay will buy IR...

      with that being said, "technology" companies will continue to bring new and exciting products to market, creating the next big thing... so, there will always be a new "technology". Semis are old school and most are now commodity products!

      cheers,

      hank

    • is the republicon repukes

    • "It's looks like LSI wants to move higher now. After churning around $7.50 for most of the day, it's now run up to $7.65."



      Looks like the stock is taking a strange path on its way to $8.



      KC

    • Buk,
      Why waste your time on KC?? He will never divulge his current positions and refuses to state why he even posts on the LSI board. Since he has admittedly posted to this board for many years, he must have some morbid, almost psychotic fixation on LSI and those who trade the stock (Reggie Boy is another example). Who knows what dwells in the minds of others??

      Good luck with your calls.

    • "When I ask what you are doing, I mean right now (take your hand out of your pocket, KC)."


      Right now?


      I'm looking for my next trade.


      And when I find it, I'll make it a point NOT to post it on this board.



      KC

    • What is KC doing now?
      Isn't the answer that simple?
      He is trying to get his last resort: gets his home equity line approved so that his margin
      call hole can be filled in by the end of tomorrow:))) LOL

    • Whenever I hear people tell me they're "day traders" and they "analyze chart patterns" I cringe in the same way I would if I were to hear someone say: "I cut myself every day, see the little patterns I've made on my arm!?"
      So . RIMM is back to 130. Don't tell us! You covered at the 125 bottom.
      When I ask what you are doing, I mean right now (take your hand out of your pocket, KC). So is RIMM a short play once more or did the "patterns" change? Tell us when you put the play on. If you are a day trader (and I hope you're not) what are you doing right now?
      P.s. Yes, RIMM is a slightly more volatile stock than LSI as measured by beta, implied volatility but not so much more so. RIMM certainly has a much higher OI in its option matrix. Perhaps that what you mean?
      LSI is slowly working its way higher. I would like to get a few more dollars out of a Jan '09 10$ call. Currently I have 10 calls sold @ .30 and would like to get .35 for the other 46. I guess LSI would have to move up to the 6.80 level for that to happen. (I know all this is so small time to you, KC, but it's what I'm doing, right now.) If I win, it's out there. If I lose, it's out there. Speaking of lose, what happened to "it's time to eat" and his imaginary portfolio? Is he waiting for LSI to have a pull-back so he can tell us he shorted at the top?
      What are you doing now, KC?

    • "Question for you KC: Why don't you trade LSI? Not volatile enough?"


      Low volatility is certainly one reason. It's uncommon for LSI to make a 10% move over a few days. Those times it did was following earnings release - and taking a position ahead of earnings is just "guessing" and is something I won't do.

      But the main reason is its lack of predictability.


      I'm not smart enough to guess the direction of a stock. So I use charts to let the stock tell ME what it wants to do. Unlike most traders with a big ego - I don't need to get in at the bottoms and out at the top. If I see a stock running - I'm content to take 10% out of the middle of a 20% run over a few days.

      My favorite trades are those in which the stock is in a strong uptrend. I look for the dips and then wait for a resumption of the uptrend before jumping in. LSI just doesn't fit that criteria.

      If I wanted to make a trade on LSI today - would I buy or sell short?


      KC

    • "I'm a DAYTRADER and a very short-term (a few days) swing trader. I trade stocks of companies whose name I don't even know and don't NEED to know when analyzing their chart patterns. I trade purely on momentum and technicals."

      Question for you KC: Why don't you trade LSI? Not volatile enough?

      Just wondering.

      Tech

    • Value: "I'm a little surprised you sold the calls rather than the stock."

      Well, the options were Jan '09 and Mar '09 $10 calls. I didn't think the premium moved up enough in relation to the strength of the stock, so I bailed. I have the shares in my IRA. And yes, in addition to many core holdings, I have several speculative positions in my IRA including a big position in VCLK.

      My main concern about NVDA is that hedge funds and aggressive mutual funds are scooping up shares on the basis of "value" and the stock buyback. The serious and growing graphic chip failure problem doesn't seem to sink in or the potential financial impact is not fully grasped. I'm going to watch for a while before purchasing more calls. Good luck.

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