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LSİ Anonim Ortaklık Message Board

  • rudogmeat rudogmeat May 6, 1999 8:45 PM Flag

    thanks davidw et al

    I appreciate the quality of interaction on this
    board. I've been checking in from time to time since I
    got in at 11 last fall. The willingness of persons on
    this board to share their perspectives and insight is
    unique. I hope that it continues.

    My own two cents
    worth of nothing: barring an unfortunate downturn in
    the market as a whole, I predict that LSI will
    probably sit at these levels until other semis catch up.
    Money moving in and out of tech is likely to focus on
    cheaper options each time our sector comes back into
    favor. LSI's current valuation seems a bit pricey even
    for a company with all of its ducks lined up.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Sorry for the delayed reply. Have been inactive
      for a few weeks. Just getting my computer set up
      after moving back up here to MD.

      What about long-term with LSI? I am new to the company
      and have stock options with a recent strike price on
      the 1st of May. Do you think they will be worth
      something in a few years? Also, I noticed that there was a
      split in the low 30's a few years back. Why did it
      split in the lo-30's. Do expect a split at a certain
      point? The stock looks like it has been going real
      strong over the last few months.

      A prior poster correctly pointed out that the stock
      had actually split at $60.

      I do not have an
      opinion on the questions of price projections. FWIW,
      however, I recently noticed a poster on the EIDSY board
      (Jacky_y98)who listed a number of Tech-Sector projections. LSI
      rated an upgrade with a $50 price target. I do not
      place much faith in such projections. They seem to be
      often way off the mark even when stated by some

      What do you believe is the major factor to this strong
      upward trend of 70% in 6

      I believe that the biggest single factor is their
      `System on a Chip' technical capability. The posts of
      DavidW35, Volvohead and others address this capability in
      more detail than I.

      However, it seems to me
      that this technology has many growing applications in
      anything that can be enhanced by miniaturization, such as
      telecommunications, hand-held devices, games, remote monitoring
      devices, spacecraft, automobiles, aircraft to name a

      It probably also hasn't hurt that VLSI, another
      `System on a Chip' provider, has been absorbed into PHG
      and is no longer an independent



    • OK, now I see the point of last week's argument!!
      DavidW lists his email for private discussions... Please
      use that as a means of communicating with him...
      Otherwise, don't put "for davidw" and address the message as
      a topic for all on this board!! It is getting a
      little old seeing "for davidw" ect....


    • Joe Kernan just mentioned it on CNBC. Can't remember the details

    • OK, now I see the point of last week's argument!!
      DavidW lists his email for private discussions... Please
      use that as a means of communicating with him...
      Otherwise, don't put "for davidw" and address the message as
      a topic for all on this board!! It is getting a
      little old seeing "for davidw" ect....



    • As to your comments about union fueled wage hikes
      causeing inflation:

      Did you know that in NY State,
      for example, the overwhelming majority of working
      people (over 90% I believe) work for small companies:
      less than ten employees?

      I don't see the unions
      having any effect at all on inflation. That will come
      with an increase in commodity prices, most
      specifically oil. Try thinking of a product that doesn't have
      the cost of oil factored into it, either as a cost of
      material (plastics) or a cost of transportation. That's
      where inflation will creep in. But it appears that
      worldwide demand increase for raw materials in the coming
      years will raise commodity prices, but supplying those
      commodities will boost local prosperity. Just MHO.

    • Hi David:

      No I've not opinion on where the
      market will go, directionwise from here on out. Many
      real analysts have said repeatedly this is a market of
      stocks, and picking the right stock, is easier than
      picking the market direction. That's why buying oil
      related issues was such a screaming buy four months ago.
      I'd say the market is going up, long term, because
      that's what it's always done, with intermittent panics
      like in 1987. Always gone up, check the record. Being
      in the wrong stock, no matter how high the market
      goes, still sucks. Guessing market direction is not
      advisable, too easy to get whipsawed.

      As to your
      second question, I never really consider this, I only
      look for specific stocks in oversold industries.
      You're not buying into the market, you're buying
      specific shares of individual companies. That's why SLB
      was a good choice, it was the best in its field and
      was way undervalued. Time proved that

      I'm not really an analyst, just follow specific
      stocks and the industry they're in.

      Good luck
      with your shares, and thanks again for all the post on
      LSI. The announcement that came out this morning
      compares their technology in SONY very well with other
      competitors' products. I see LSI above $60 within 18 months.
      Just my feel for it.

    • i think the market will be down 15% in the next 2
      months, although I would like it to hold on a while,
      because I bought LSI @ 38 over 2 years ago, I am back in
      red again.

      I have the problem of "falling in
      love with a stock". I tend to hold on to a stock even
      through I feel there will be troubles with that stock. As
      a result, I barely make any money even my stocks
      ever doubled or tripled. so from now on I will try to
      time the mkt and share my opinions with you.

    • Hi mfe1740,

      I see a second inflation
      indicator that is becoming increasingly clear - wage
      inflation due to Union strikes.

      I have some examples
      below. My question is this. Has the market topped ? How
      will this affect semi-stocks ?

      1. GM

      2. Kaiser Aluminum Strike (Been going on for a LONG

      The important paragraph :

      About 3,000 United
      Steelworkers of America workers at five Kaiser plants went on
      strike on Sept 30.

      Entire web article

      3. Downgrade on Ford &

      mfe1740 - My two questions for you :

      (1) As an
      analyst, do you have any opinion on market direction at
      this time ?

      (2) Specifically, can we sustain a
      rise in the overall market with S&P 500 at 20%
      overvalue ?


      -David W.

    • Item

      Does anyone see anything different about this market
      that would let it continue through this year without a
      nasty sell off at some

      As I see things :

      Here's the negatives

      1) S&P 500 is overvalued somewhere around

      2) Inflation is creeping up on us.

      3) Oil
      prices and some commodities going higher.

      Tight labor markets may increase wages

      5) Semi
      equipment makers got a downgrade this morning.

      IMO - LSI is likely to be considered fairly valued at
      until either we get upgrades, or a statement from
      Wilf. The
      market does not appear to be sufficiently
      motivated to buy
      more LSI at these prices without an
      external stimulous.

      Here's the positives

      1) Foreign markets are STILL cheap

      2) *some*
      technology stocks are still cheap

      3) Health Services
      stocks are cheap

      4) Disk Drive industry appears
      to have bottomed

      -SEG perhaps one of the
      safest in the group, along with QNTM.

      -RDRT the
      little-hellian in the group may prove to pay back
      highest return if they execute on GMR. Do your DUE

      DILIGENCE *before* you buy shares in RDRT. Know the
      and understand the problems it faces.

      Fed will probably only *hint* of interest rate hike


      Stay in the market. Stick with lower P/E and P/B ratio
      stocks. If possible buy stocks trading below book value
      in out of favor sectors. Avoid high flyers like -
      AOL, HDI, CSCO, WMT, etc. Look at TIE and IHS as
      examples (from a profile perspective) of stocks that fit a
      more conservative model - not suggesting to invest in
      these, just to look at the profile.

      At a minimum
      this market will correct downward based on "rotation"
      - with different sectors going out of favor, the
      same way it went UP .... that would be GOOD news, and
      that is what I'm hoping for. So far that has been the
      case. The bad scenario would be for everything to
      pull-back dramatically at the same

      -David W.

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