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Biodel Inc. (BIOD) Message Board

  • ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Sep 16, 2010 9:09 PM Flag

    The Ram Scoop On BIOD

    Let me preface this with two points:

    1. I feel genuinely bad for those that were duped by the pumpers and manipulation that occurred in ARNA. The vote of the market this week was the key. Sadly, many ignored that vote and lost money by listening to paid pumpers and having a closed mind. It is a lesson learned for many.

    2. BIOD management is like a bartender that serves a bad liquor. The effect is good if you can make yourself drink it.

    3. I know I said two points, but check out my post on ARNA yesterday concerning BIOD. Could have bought low $4's yesterday when I mentioned it to those asking what stock I liked.

    That being said this stock is going to make investors that bought sub $4 some serious money. The float is crazy low. The ownership of insiders and institutions is decent. There are lots of shorts that are no better at trading stocks than anyone else. And....the science and pipeline is crazy good in a market that is far and wide.

    Yes, this stock has disappointed shareholders for years. The management is nuts. Forget the history, forget the management, forget the PDUFA date. They might screw it up in October but this is a buy on dips and hold. One day this thing will fly and put smiles on our faces. Personally, I think it runs quite a lot from here to PDUFA. The float is just so sensitive to news and volume. It is not tradeable at the moment from a statistical point of view. I wish it was because that is how I like to play. You could be out of this one a half day and miss a huge pop. I can't predict it and statistics is my forte. So, buy and hold is my strategy until I can find another way. I bought like a mad man under $4. Bought like an insane asylum under $3.75. Bad liquor or not this thing is gonna impress one day and I will be there to have a drink of the top shelf stuff.

    Good luck all. This is not meant as advice but meant to prod your own thinking towards a strategy. Good luck to ARNA friends. Always be quiet enough to hear the market when she speaks. It is vital. Happy investing!!!

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    • Good points.

      Seems that MM's are having a field day with stocks approaching PDUFA dates - first dumping ALXA and now BIOD. Seems to be having a knockon effect on AVNR and ISTA.


    • Thanks Ram. I always look forward to reading your posts.

    • I don't quite understand your logic.

      You seems very bullish on BIOD and you suggest buy & hold on BIOD but you also said " They might screw it up in October but this is a buy on dips and hold"

      But if they screw up in October, then pps will drop back to $2s. So what is your point? If this drop back to $2 and you suggest to buy it under $4.5? you lose 50%!

      • 1 Reply to DnWang
      • DN:

        Here is my strategy without all the verbage. I bought BIOD on big dips. In at $3.70 or so average. The statistics I employ tell me the stock runs hard as we build momentum to PDUFA. I don't know to what level exactly. I think $7ish. Some say more. I play it conservative.

        I will let the market tell me what to do further down the road. If I miscalculate and hold my $3.70 shares and PDUFA outcome is bad, I am not worried. I will add more on deep dips. This gets approved Oct. or some day soon. I can't predict FDA. No one can. I want to be in BIOD at lowest cost I can achieve for the time mother pharma buys it. I will listen to the market to tweek my strategy as needed along the way. May trade the stock, may hold, may hedge with options. It is too early to know yet. Hope it helps. Good Luck!!!!!

    • ram, i lost a bunch in ARNA :( thought it was too late to get out after the post breifing document drop and stuck with it. Bad idea all the way. worst thing is i was 95% sure it wont get approved by FDA, you live and learn i guess.

      i bought decent chunk of BIOD under 3.80 and plan to add more if it falls to lower /under 4

      i know you liked ALXA too, any current thoughts on that or any other stocks that a gambler like me can look at?

      • 1 Reply to m0nata01
      • mOn:

        Sorry, about the ARNA deal. I am curious, why did you not trade it as I suggested? Not your strategy I guess.

        As for BIOD you should watch closely. Not sure it drops below $4 any time soon. I am not predicting it via the statistics I employ. It is an iffy proposition for it to drop. It might get manipulated for a quick drop. I consider it risky to not have already accumulated your shares. I have long said anything under $4.50 is a buy and I think you can get shares around there.

        I still think ALXA will run further. My ideas are there on ALXA board. I am buying some stocks I consider holds for possible buy outs. I buy on deep dips and just sock it away. YMI is interesting for that strategy. I have traded ZLCS (formally CRXX) like a madman. Made a lot trading it. Very predictable statistically. I also like it buy and hold. Good pipe with some interesting plays in the future. So that is some to investigate. ZLCS has not been good for trading lately. I try to stay in it on dips because one day it will likely get bought out.

        I own AVNR but I think it has more risk. Not good for trading either. MOS is a great trading stock. Got lucky and made some good $ being long for a few days lately. I love to swing trade MOS for a buck. Takes some capital to buy many shares but it swings a buck or more lots of days.

        Good luck!!!!!

    • SNY or GSK at $20-$25/share within six months.

    • post this crap..
      Yes, this stock has disappointed shareholders for years. The management is nuts. Forget the history, forget the management, forget the PDUFA date.
      Disappoint shareholders for years...WTF are you talking about!!!!!
      Management is nuts....WTF are you CRAZY or can you not read!!!!!!!!
      How about forget you!!!!!!! Get off the know I pegged it!!

    • I meant to include two more points:

      1. No debt here. That is huge for any company. HUGE!!!

      2. Mother pharma is on the prowl for this one. I can't say it will be bought but I can say I do, I do, I do believe it will be.


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