$40 million in the red with a $20 million/year burn rate -- so they're aching for SOMEONE to buy in - just how cheap could they be had?? - but there are NO takers...why????
Because those EU and Aussie approvals really took no hard efficacy data. This product:
a) barely works, as ReCharge painfully established
b) requires two surgical procedures (implant and eventual removal, right?)
c) and a $5000 unit; that's about $12,000-$13,000 per patient
c) but only gets half the efficacy at six months that simple pills like Belviq, Contrave and Qsymia.
And they only cost about $900/per patient ($150/month x 6 months)
WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE INSURANCE COVERAGE??????? They will fight this payment in favor of serial use of the pills.
Okay -- it's safe enough to approve (IF, IF you have very low efficacy standards for devices). But it doesn't work anywhere near well enough to justify its huge cost.
That's why they won't make enough to attract any investment or partnering.
Why the hell do you continue to bash this forum? If you have no care to invest in this company then leave . No one cares what you have to say. We're. Going to invest out money in what we want to and in whatever way we choose to do so.. Quit being a #$%$ and screwing up what once use to be a decent forum where investors alike could conversate. All I see when I come to this page now is your damn screen name. Its #$%$. Leave and do your own #$%$ . You're wasting yours as well as my time. You may think we're wastin our money , but we have other opinions on that matter . Worry about yourself and your own investments.
Well, I found out now that they did last have a sale in Australia (none ever in EU it seems) back in the spring of 2012 shortly after approval. Patient paid all then - and there haven't been any sales anywhere since.
What's interesting here are Canaccord's projected sales no more again until 2015!!! In which year they -- optimistically, I guess -- predict total yearly sales to be 1000 units worldwide at an average price of $7,500 per unit for ETRM sales (adjusted for their 30% cut) of $2.25MM or about 2 cents per share.
But at a burn rate of --- what?? Hell, it don't matter. Even their pumper Canaccord's optimistic guess for global sales between now and 2018 is an aggregate, a total of $49.5MM in that whole time.
They obviously are basing their unsupportable 12-month $3.00 target on pure speculation, pure pumpery in lieu of ANY sales ANYWHERE. They predict no more sales until 2015.
Canaccord identifies the same problems, gents. And their numbers are wose than these - and actuall practice says the therapy will cost even more than Can-a-corn says.
And the approvals were low-standards ones to begin with as they didn't even have the advanced trials' final data in hand.....
a highly pessimistic view of this stock's chances of significant is certainly a very legitimate one even if one could 'make a case' for any optimism. The conservative, cautious view here HAS to be pessimistic with this wealth of poor omens.
Your points are very weak - there is a market for this device. A lot of people can't take the side effects of the pills and therefore have to go for some other alternative treatment. The device may cost $5000 -$10000, but it is a continuous use device over many years. Prescriptions pills cost $2000 per year, after a few year, the device pays for itself against the meds - with no side effects and very safe. The pills shouldn't be used continuously - a patient would have to cycle off then back on - at which time - guess what - they gain weight back. This device is continuous for many years and keeps a person on a path that can keep the weight loss sustained. Yes, not as efficient as Qysmia, but close to Belviq - oh, and no side effects whatsoever. A continuous weight loss approach as provided by this device would allow compounded weight loss over time - as opposed to the pills of ARNA, VVUS, OREX where a patient cycles off - or the side effects cause them to quit. This is a safe and effective alternative to lap band. Yes, surgical procedure involved to install the leads but the device is outside the body and can be upgraded later on with no surgery (unlike a pacemaker). Surgery is minor. Also, no surgery to remove as the leads would just be abandoned in the body (as the case with pacemaker replacement where they often had to install new leads) (the leads grow into where they are attached). Insurance won't fight payment for a device that works and overtime has no need for continuous meds. Ultimately it is a decision made between a Dr. and a patient. They may try Belviq and end up getting this device down the road or use a combination of both therapies.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Don't be so naive: the device may just cost $5000-$10,000, but the necessary surgical implantation and the support services will cost another $20,000-$30,0000.
And little or none of it covered by insurance. Almost NO ONE will accept that cost; almost NO ONE will even prescribe it with several efficacious, low-cost therapies already in place and well known.
Lack of serious side effects is a positive for VBLOC but the fact that a surgery is needed for lead implantation in the stomach may scare off people. Imagine yourself as an obese people will you do it or will you try the pills first. I am long but I am in it mostly as an ADCOM run-up play. FDA may approve this but I am not very confident about the business prospect. If this device was a highly sought after device don't you think we will see some sales in Australia even in the absence of an established sales team?
"The device may cost $5000 -$10000, but it is a continuous use device over many years."
Don't forget, as well, this is early stage prototyping from a small Minnesota biotech - in larger OEM runs, the cost of the device would be significantly reduced. We can also expect enhanced miniaturization as the technology evolves. Right now, the procedure apparently takes less than 60 minutes to perform - not a highly intrusive one; as someone else pointed out, it has the potential to become the standard of care for morbid obesity.
That's a biased interpretation: the only limited production run to date was for Australia/Gulf Coast in 2012, and the distribution channel in those regions remains in developmental stage. There has been no EU product launch yet (understandably - EU/CE certification is recent). Meanwhile, the trial launch in Australia generated 25% margin, and the small initial production run was sold out. This is still an R&D company, not a manufacturer or a medical equipment distributor. Whether the product will be approved in US, and whether solid manufacturing and distribution partnerships will be established remains speculative, but that's pretty much the case for any early stage biotech.
These are prototype runs, and Enteromedics isn't likely ever to become a production factory for electronic devices. The thing to remember here is that vagal nerve stimulation is proven, effective technology, and ETRM is the first mover: " Intermittent, intra-abdominal vagal blocking is associated with significant EWL and a desirable safety profile." (Conclusion from an independent study conducted by The Mayo Clinic).
The most likely scenario involves future R&D, production, and marketing partnerships. If you ever believed ETRM could go it alone as a factory and a global distributor, then you were dreaming. However the technology is very promising, and since ETRM owns it, Canaccord's initial PT of $3 seems entirely reasonable, perhaps even modest.
I think the point was that ETRM doesn't ahve the wherewithal to get units produced for market regardless of whether they do it themselves or not. Too broke to pay vendor, can't get partner for it. That all seems true enough.