Hi Tom -- Happy New year, hope its a good one.
That;s a weird statement that you make b/c using the same logic you would think most any assett would go up if they were smart. Here's the thing.. Smart is really needed at the very top. Many companies do very well with ordinary blue coller high school educated workers. I'm sure there are some Very smart people at SGMS but not many. They don't pay salaries that attract high earners nor do they foster an environment that would attract the same. They are a Monopoly almost in that not many companies have the money or stability to stay in business should an earnngs miss happen. The lotteries wouldn't consider a company they thought couldn't withstand some hardship.
JPM lent SGMS a lot of money at 8% when most companies were paying 1-2 percent. While the employees may take a beating, and the stockholders might get whacked its hard to imagine SGMS going under. If it has a chance to go up it will not be because of anything smart. It will be either a sellout or a new business opportunity that they would fall into by luck of being one of 2-3 lottery companies.