He was made at me for telling him the truth about this company long ago. So he created an evil dobbleganger. People get angry when others tell them something they don't want to hear. They would rather be told what they want to hear--regardless of how wrong it may be. This board is a prime example of that
10Q due in a few weeks--it won't look good. At this point even restructuring the tax equity is nothing more than a short term band aid. A really short term band aid, remember they have no long term finance plan to keep the company running. Assume they eventually were to get 10MW net--without purchasing dirty power--on line. Who in their right mind would throw money into a project that was delayed at least a year and came in 3 times over budget?
Longs are just hanging onto a thread right now--hoping for a miracle. This is not investing--it is not even speculating at this point. It is just a crap shoot and the odds are against you. Take what is left of your money--go to the casino--at least you will enjoy losing the rest of it.
FWIW, I feel sorry for those who were duped into this stock.
For those who incessantly hyped it and spread bs stories and false hope; nbt, gak, homey, rongm et al (if I left your name off this list I apologize) I feel no sorrow for you.
raser is in a catch 22 situation. The higher they show costs now--the large the ITC. The catch is by showing high cost--they then have to convince investors going forward--that they can reduce those high costs down.
Tough sell when are arguing to the govt the 10MW plant costs $140 million when your projections going forward say you can build a 20MW plant for $86 million. It should be easy to show costs to the Govt, the tough part comes in selling a future investor that your learning curve will bring the costs of a 10MW plant from $140 million (or whatever number they end up with), down to $43 million
I would guess all features of the capital and tax deals are in negotiation. The 99/1 split with "sculpted payments" was the commercial equivalent of a sub-prime mortgage.
I think Raser hopes to get a ~~40M payout from the government. It will use ~20M to payoff the PTC (which goes away). Raser wants credit to remarket the 50% accelerated depreciation credit for the balance of the tax partner obligation. That's a 40M first year depreciation credit-- can it find a buyer at anywhere near par in this economy.
Raser has already hypothecated a portion of the government payout to borrowing against the UTC units deposit and appears to be floating additional contracting bills. Assign 10M to these debts.
The residual government payment (let's guess 10) will pay down the capital share. The capital share is 25M hard money, 32M basis using an original issue discount, and a 3M arrears due to revenue failure.
I'm guessing Raser is requesting a 10M discount off the hard money cost, and ML is saying the account balance is 35M, and the discount gets you back to the hard money basis of 25M. The IRR was figured absent the original issue discount.
The income projections are likely more conservative in the future, so the split may still be confiscatory in the out years, as the actual basis won't have changed much.
The lack of transparency in this deal making is damaging Raser. It all sounds and feels like a house of cards-- and there is no financial appetite for a mortgage based on such elaborate chicanery.
I assume you're talking about Magma? I agree, they're well capitalized and are in an excellent position to scoop up Thermo land. However, they're acquiring land all over the world, and it makes me wonder how focused they are on actually developing the resources they have.
IMO, Raser should have been shedding all of their geothermal claims around the country during the past year. They need to focus on just Thermo and perhaps lightning dock. I suppose they wouldn't have been able to sell stock without a grandiose expansion plan, but clearly they've out kicked their punt coverage.
It is good that you did warn people about this stock harlyisadog.
I am very happy and was able to get out at a slight profit awhile back when the price was over $ 4/sh.
The best boards have an intelligent opposing view not just saying the stock sucks but giving no real reasons. Those that lost money here have no one but themselves to blame since they were presented with the facts, and chose to ignore them and drink the kool aide.
People keep trying to pick the bottom here, not realizing this stock may not have one. Not all companies succeed, and some get the dreaded .pk
You have an over-inflated view of yourself. You're like the big bad wolf threatening to blow everybody's house down. Unfortunately for you, the house is made of bricks. You just can't see it because you're blinded by your own arrogance. Most fools open their mouths the widest just before they insert their foot.
You need to take another look at your math big-shot. Currently Thermo 1 is carrying 25M in debt. With a successful restructuring to the ITC, that debt will be significantly reduced. I'm guessing to around 15m after paying off ML and leaving a little left over to extend the casing on the first four wells. Where does that leave us? It leaves us selling enough power to Anaheim to service the debt. I'm not talking some future pipe dream. I'm talking right here and now. With the onset of fall temperatures(yearly average), I'm thinking they should be netting about $150,000 a month in power sales. That's more than enough to service the 15M in debt with nowhere to look but up. That is before tying in the fifth well which is apparently already drilled. I am just looking at a small improvement due to cooler temperatures from the 5 MW gross - 1 MW net that they operated at through the August heat. Now we won't see much of that in the upcoming 10q because the reporting quarter ended 3 weeks ago, but of course you already knew that didn't you.
Next re-figure your math on future plants. I believe they can build a 12 MW gross/ 8 MW net plant for well under 100M after applying what they learned from the first plant. I believe a ton of money was wasted on the first plant by moving too hastily in an attempt to hold off a bunch of ravenous shorts. That is not nearly as big of an issue with the stock at $1.25. If they are able to do that - and I recognize it should not be taken for granted - then we should have a winner with green power prices having risen much higher than the current 7.8 - especially after shaving a large chunk right off the top due to generous government incentives. Don't forget the extra two percent from the State of Utah - you like to do that.
The last problem will be the debt of the Raser parent. This could largely be taken care of by the exercise of warrants alone if the current downward momentum can be broken. I believe a Thermo 1 restructuring combined with a SCPPA deal will finally break the shorts grip. I won't feel sorry for a single one of them.
Now all that is just my opinion and could be 180 degrees off, but I have painted a reasonable picture of possibilities - it's not an unrealistic pipe-dream and it is far different from your portrait of hopeless despair.
IF they could build another plant for $50MM (-50%) and deliver 8Mw of power at $100 (+25%), how does that work out?
800 X 24hr X 365 = $700,000 per year in Revenues. Deduct some expenses (use whatever you want), and that will service exactly how much debt? Even Obamanomics won't make this work. Of course, you could ignore all costs to build and it is a great deal. That is how dave has made sense of owning the stock from 2.25 and not losing money. Are the two of you related?
The house has already been blown down--not by me--by raser management. Buy hey, they have all made a good deal of money off this.
<<<You're like the big bad wolf threatening to blow everybody's house down. Unfortunately for you, the house is made of bricks. You just can't see it because you're blinded by your own arrogance. >>>
Right, I'm blinded--I've missed this by a country mile. Wish I'd been long.
before I delve too deep in you numbers--could you start with explaining how you think raser can get $150,000/month net in power sales?
the price per MWh is $78
ML gets 99%
<<< I'm thinking they should be netting about $150,000 a month in power sales>>>
Harly the more they hate you the more they have lost (on paper right Dave?) and the more they will continue to lose. Goodbye house, car, and kid's college fund. It's hard to be smarter than most and have any friends.
It is the reason there are so many religions, political ideologies, and fast food restaurants. People willingly believe what they want to believe (and eat). Lets go on a bike ride next season! We are headed to St. George to ride through Zion Nat'l Park two weeks from Friday (weather cooperating). Do you happen to have a dirt bike? We go all over Utah for off road adventures (some on road on our licensed dual sports).