All said -- this company valued at $70m is too low. They have about $50m of net cash + $18m/year. licensing revenue stream. If I had $90m, I would buy them out at 25% premium, shut down all their development and fire everybody, but a bookkeeper. Collect royalties for at least another four years and make $32m. That is ~9% interest. Not bad...
Yes, you're right, $70M makes no sense. I think they probably are getting worried about a buyout. The longer it stays low, the more likely they have to present a buyout to shareholders.
Actually, I'm surprised some private equity hasn't tried this stunt. Buy some shares on the open market and then offer a full buyout at $4. They either get rejected but raise the stock price and win, or buy the company for $70M net of cash, sell PA to interested party (say, $10M) and offer GSK/AZ a prepaid buyout, say $75M for Trex and $25M for Vimovo. They end up making $40M+.
I think they want to soothe investors' concerns about this news that they are announcing. This is why they called a conference. And this means that the news is bad. IMO it is either the secondary or some major officer/principal shuffle.
The bottom line is if news was good -- why make a conference to disclose it -- just make a press release? Seriously, name one mid-quarter update that disclosed good news. Usually (100%?) this is taken by companies to disclose things that (if not disclosed properly) can lead to shareholders' suing this company.
They wouldn't sit on bad news for that long. It would serve what purpose to wait? I think they're doing this because the stock is so low, they want to appear as if they are engaging investors. My guess is that they will give out Vimovo estimates for the quarter and discuss what they've found out about why sales aren't increasing quickly (let's face it, this isn't a breakthrough drug; it's a good combo drug at a fairly steep price with passive marketing, ie, no TV ads). I'm hopeful they talk about the value of their royalty stream in explicit terms as well as release clinical safety results with PA.
CHAPEL HILL, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- POZEN Inc. (NASDAQ:POZN - News), a pharmaceutical company committed to transforming medicine that transforms lives, announced today that it plans to release a mid-quarter update and financial guidance on October 4, 2011, before the market opens.
All I have to say is mid quarter update announced before market open. Sorry...it won't be bad news...
I don't think it's bad news. You generally wouldn't wait that long. Look at any company that pre-announced bad earnings. They don't do a conference call for days in advance. They have a press release that day. My guess is that mgmt is reacting to upset shareholders. Unless you think Vimovo/Trex patents won't hold, $2.50 is far below any appropriate value.
AZN continues to refer to Vimovo as one of their growth products, as recently as their September 2011 investor update. The 135 page presentation has 4 pages focused on Vimovo, which does not make sense given current sales or if they were about to give up on the product. Given the already very low sales expectations for the product, it is hard to imagine them disappointing and maybe they are finally getting some sales traction.
It could be study results. It could also be a Vimovo update on what their consultant found out. And probably a review of their financials and how $2.50 makes no sense with cash and royalties and PA.
Whatever it is, I don't think it's bad news, otherwise they would announce today and then hold a conference call.