The one analyst that still tracks AXTI has updated his earnings projections. He is very conservative and has been off by over 4 cents a quarter since Morris became CEO again. So you can likely think of his estimate as the low end of the range.
His projection for 2010 is now up to $0.23. This would give AXTI a possible peak price target for 2010 as follows:
30 P/E = $6.90 15 P/E = $3.45 (sell, we are there now!) 15 P/E + book = $6.40 15 P/E + cash equiv = $4.60
Take your pick and realize he is conservative, if he continues to be off by $0.04 a quarter those numbers go up quite a bit.
GGGL I saw that estimate update from our lone analyst. Seems he is really being conservative. Morris called for 4 to 7 cents on the CC. Being that the quarter is 2/3 over Morris should have a pretty good handle on this quarter already. We have been beating handily last 2, and March 09 was a debacle so this should work ok.
Stock action is really strange the only thing I can come up with is that a lot of day traders came in the last few weeks and really bailed between 3.30 and 3.80. Made a sharp turn up at 3.17.
Well, let's cut him a little slack. AXT made $0.09 in Q4 with no taxes. So give them a nice tax hit of 30+% and the earnings are down to 6 cents. So the question is whether the analyst is taking into account the taxes already or not. Clearly he is being conservative, but then again he is at 5 cents for Q1 and AXT guided 4 to 7 cents. So he is in the middle of the guidance range, still conservative, but not exactly bearish.
I think AXT can do 40 cents this year (with 0% tax rate). So it will depend on their tax rate what they actually do.