You make good points, however, the biggest problem we face right now is that we are being hit by negatives in market sentiment as well as a recent resurgence in negatives about "computer" lead technology. All of these issues will be addressed with Q2 earnings, unfortunately they are still a month and a half away.
The Russell 3000 news will be very interesting, especially when it comes to weighting. If we make it into the top 2000 the weighting might drive quite a bit of buying and let's not forget, many funds have restrictions like stock price and index listings, those are 2 hurdles we may soon overcome and that should lead to some nice new blood with money entering the stock.
Looking for the Silver Lining.... The Russ will have an impact, but the overall market needs to shake the current trends. Conditions now are traders delight. Yet ..I feel the true investors on this board are smiling, knowing that the picking will never be better.
Keep in mind that the products we are dealing with will be under constant pressure to reduce their price structures, or face the certain fate of pricing them self out of the market. Work is being done on a number of different alloys to replace the high cost of Gallilum/Germaninum .
..Smart "is not being stupid with billions at stake"!
Amen brother, the right catalyst like say a Russ 3000 and this thing moves. My suspicion is that when the sec filings come out for June we will see some interesting accumulations this quarter and less weak hands to shake it down.
It will be interesting to see what kind of a bounce we get from the inclusion in the Russell 3000. Odds are there are a lot of funds that currently won't even look at AXT that will have us on their radar after we are officially included. Not sure how they write their rules, but we won't be an official member of the Russell 3000 till the release of the official list at the end of the month.
This all should set up well for a rapid stock price appreciation if the shares are now in strong long term hands. Judging by the recent selling frenzy after our rise to $5 we might not yet have purged all the short term traders yet. In any case, that will happen once the indexes start to load up on AXT, those shares are going to get sucked right out of the market and that means a shrinking float at a time of more demand.
It looks like some of the Strategy Analytics TAM estimates for 2013 jumped around. That is not too concerning to me since these are just swag's anyway.
Handsets growth went up which makes sense, these are still probably way too low anyway if you look at China and India growth in this area.
They added the statement to the pres. "Starting to address large volume, low end LED business" and took their 2010 market share up from 9-15%. Morris mentioned this on the last CC along with the forthcoming capex increase and a new Taiwanese LED customer, which signals they are looking at attempting a big revenue growth initiative over the next few years.
Being that they have 39M in cash and some ~30M+ already in inventory, infrastructure is already in place in China and US. Seems very achievable that they can exploit the market trends next few years.
I think we are still trading on technicals as pointed out earlier. That will change as more get on board, look at thie big volume lately. I see lots of similar companies with debt and less growth trading at much higher multiples.
Thanx for the presentation link. Looks like we are a captive of the market right now with a lot of selling going on in tech and small caps.
Hopefully we hit the bottom over the next day or so and can rally, afterall the US economy is doing reasonably well.
is AXT lowering their market outlook with this new ppt?
at first glance the totals per year are same as prior presentations, however, if you add up the segments manually the numbers don't add up at all.
In addition: despite the same totals CAGR stood at 11% and is now 15%, also weird. how can CAGR change if the totals remain?
Take year 2011: 170 (SI GaAs) + 169.4 (SC GaAs) + 59 (Ge) + 52.0 (InP) equals according my calculator to : 450.4
In AXT's chart on slide 8 the total is however: 508