Why do you say it looks like it is "ready to run"? Do you hope it is ready to run or do you have fundamental data to support the statement? I see little to suggest it will have a meaningful run in the near future. The stock buy back program is for a small amount ($10.0 mm I believe) and it will be over time. My bet is this stays flat all summer.
I struggle to see the justification (other than based on BV) for this being a buy. GaAs prices have not recovered which is the best indicator I have seen for demand. Also, the IQE acquisitions seem to have stymied their purchases from AXTI to some extent. That whole story has yet to be told, but IQE's growth via acquisition has not necessarily been a good thing for AXTI in the short run. I believe it will be a good thing in the long run, but in the short to intermediate term, it is not clear to me.
In spite of today's depressing price action in AXTI, there are some modest indications that your pessimism may be overdone. 1) Metals Pages shows 4 charts of gallium prices. Three are flat and one is up. 2) The 1st Qtr. 2013 conference call has been scheduled relatively soon, which is more likely a good sign than a bad sign, 3) AXT's stock buyback is authorized to begin in May. 4) While I had hoped that AXTI stock would stabilize above $3.00, at least it has not broken through it's 2.69 floor.