mplautz.......a true investing genius! Just like all the other ill-informed momentum day-trader pumpers on this board. Learn about this company. Assess the risks.
There is no telling which way this stock will move as our friend mplautz proved this afternoon as did many others excitedly screaming "My limit order was filled!" only to see their sure thing turn south at the end of the day.
No free lunch here folks. Move along. Nothing to see.
This stock is priced right where it should be given all their problems. It is not undervalued or oversold nor is it overvalued or undersold. No, it's just where it should be given all the info and circumstances.
Thanks for your kind remarks... predictions always look grossly out of line when they turn out to be wrong. I accept that premise when I make them and recognize that it leaves me open for later bashing.. so-be-it. I will agree with your statement that the price of individual stocks at any given time is unpredictable.
This is some of what I know about this company:
1. World-class bio company with a r&d focus on neurology, auto-immune and pain drugs including Antegen, Zonegran and others, especially those in the Alzheimer and Parkinson disease areas. Annual sales in 2001 were $1.8 billion. 2. Drug pipeline is strong: partners include Merck, Novartis, J&J, Astra-Zeneca and Wyeth with over 30 products in clinical stages. 3. At the end of July announced a restructing program to spin off over $1.5 billion in assets- the recent announcement of the spin-off of generic adalat is a solid first step. Financially they are trying to pay down significant debt and reduce their costs. This sounds like a necessary and positive move. 4. As they move to sell assets they have become a takeover target as noted in today's artice in the Irish Independent that they have rejected BMY's bid for the company. This indicates to me that they are a valauble entity but likely underpriced in today's market place. 5. The SEC began an investigation of their accounting practices formally on 2/7/02 (stock price sliced in half on 2/4/02) with an uncertain outcome in the face of "Enronitis" and the WorldCom debacle. On 8/19/02 the chairman stated that Elan has found nothing out of line internally. The last SEC investigation in 1999 required a 2% adjustment to earnings in 1997. My opinion is that the SEC will not make materially adverse findings. During this time frame (2002), ELn stock price has plummetted from a high of 45 down to 1.68 (a devaluation of 96%!) and has only recently recovered to the $3 level. The 19% level of shorts is also a sign of significant weakness. Now if the company is as valued as it appears on paper with it's future potential I would call that a lack of investor trust and possibly overselling wouldn't you agree?. 6. They are in critical need of and looking for a new CEO. IMO they are close to a new selection. 7. I personally like the enterprising nature of Irish companies and their work force. That is whay so many major companies have elected to built plants there.
No free lunch here but I'm bullish this stock over the next few months... and can't ignore the momentum in the stock (up 100% since 8/14/02 and hopefully will consolidate and move up) and the intrinsic value I see in Elan. Therefore, I think I'll stay the longer course to see what happens, while keeping a close eye on the day to day action. I may follow the market swings of select companies but I do complete my own due diligence before I invest and just like the institutions do day in day out in this brutal bear market swing trades sometimes make sense, although the timing of such will always be ascribed to an aura of "gambling". I prefer to rationalize this to responsible risk taking and only do this with a small portion of my portfolio.
I'll try to "pump" a little harder with facts in the future. Happy trading!
I don't believe you answered me before regarding your position in ELN? Do you own the stock? If you answered me, I might've missed the post as sometimes when you get back to read the board there's at least 100 more than when you left. Your statement "move along, there's nothing to see". So, can you please tell me why YOU'RE here then???? I don't pay a bit of attention to the pumpers OR bashers, I can figure things out for myself, but your agenda seems quite different although I would have to say it leans toward bashing in a more subtle way.