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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

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  • simonig simonig Jan 31, 2003 1:54 PM Flag

    Transcript from Bloomberg Interview PT1

    ELN valuation could be $30 billion with Antegren and two Alzheimers drugs in the pipeline. The three most important things for a high valuation to a drug company with lots of cash is Pipeline, Pipeline, and Pipeline. Let's not forget that Elan has lots of cash and is raising more CASH.

    Best Regards,

    Simon

    PS: How about that Pipeline with Antegren, Two Alzheimers drugs, Frova, Prialt, plus many JVs.

    • >>ELN valuation could be $30 billion with Antegren and two Alzheimers drugs in the pipeline.<<

      Much as I wish this were true, this is pure bunk. To achieve $30B valuation, Elan will need to have $3B in sales and have a strong pipeline.

      >>Let's not forget that Elan has lots of cash and is raising more CASH.<<

      Let's not forget that this cash is more than already spoken for: $800MM in LYONs can be put at end of year and $840MM in EPIL II and III debt is due next year and the year after. Plus, add in $250MM in annual operating losses over the next 2 years...

      CASH: $1400MM

      DEBT: EPIL II & III - $840MM
      LYONS - $800MM

      OPERATING LOSS EST.: $250MM

      I hope that operating losses are offset by increased Frova sales, and myobloc sales and by Prialt and Antegren sales (assuming approval). But who is going to sell these products now?...

 

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