Elan Corporation, plc Message Board
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Saddam will be Disarmed
I'm not hoping for war, but I expect it. Mostly cash here, and waiting. If I'm wrong, that is great. I'll take it. Otherwise, will pick up some bargains, and betting we will win. Imo, the best way to prepare for war, is with cash. One more thing, not meant to scare, but if Saddam does have nuke potential? That would really be a freaking stock crasher, amoung other things. I know he is full of bs. It's not out of the question, but Saddam does say he intends to be the victor. JMHO, We will see, whether I'm wrong on this one. Hopefully.
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Except for misjudging Saddam, I think you are spot on. Saddam is no hero, and certainly doesn't wish to be a martyr. He is a coward who fears everything and everybody. He functions by force with mistrust as a basic premise. His 'passing' will result in quick collapse of his regime, much as did the nazis with the death of Hitler. The resultant vacuum will most likely be a problem as the next tier of possible Iraqi leaders is hard to identify, except for those in now exile. Additional problems lie with the educational level of the Iraqi people (58%literacy) which is lower than all Arab countries except Afganistan (31%) and Egypt (51%), plus the ethnic and religious minorities (ie: Kurds and Sunnis) who may not be quick to embrace anything.
Hopefully, there are not powerful tribal divisions to deal with as exist in Afganistan.
Aside from the old Croat and Serbian hatreds, who knew the strength of Yugoslavia's other divisions before the fall of Tito and communism?
While it is certain that Saddam must go before he begins some real mischief, I hope we are able to let go of this tiger's tail and still feel that it was all worthwhile.
Regards,
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Could be more difficult, than Afganistan. Saddam has bank, and deep tunnels. A ground war might not be so clean.
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I agree.
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So if the U.S. troops destroy all 17 of Saddam's palaces he will have to run and hide in caves like Ossama bin Laden. As soon as the smart bombs start dropping, expect a coup within his prized Republican guard top ranks. This war will last less than 5 days.
Long Elan -
The Iraqi nuclear scare affects Israel most. They are much closer to Iraq than Iraq is to the continental US. Note the SCUD missile attacks on Israel in Gulf war I. The US is simply a proxy for the elimination of any Iraqi threath to the rest of the world. I think your wrong about a stock market crash in event of war on Iraq by US forces. It's already priced in. Maybe a little dip down but, that's about it. The actual state of the economy is more of an issue now that a stinkin war with Iraq.
Long Elan- 1 Reply to steal_this_alias
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ya, you may be right too. After the war is done, ELN will bounce back, in event of a drop. I would expect the markets to rally too. Let's just hope Saddam, does not get lucky. That could shake everything up. The uncertainty, will inevitably create some volitility, imo.
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No doubt. The US isn't sending 300,000 people to the middleeast to be sent home. We are going to remove Saddam from power. As soon as Turkey makes up it;s mind it will happen.
- 1 Reply to thegasman9
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That's right. imo, it is going down. Coincidentally, I suspect the timing around mid march, near the vote time. We will see.
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