I'm long, but my broker just sent me the report in the mail.
"Our analysis of Antegren's Ohase 2 data leads ys ti believe that Antegren is unlikely to exhibit clinical significance in the phase 3 trials for both MS and Crohn's."
This is a mid-size firm with a new biotech analyst who has a mixed record.
Has anybody else seen this "Maxim Group" report besides acricketeer? Is there a link?
The shorts and the hedges must be terrified, they're out in droves! They attacked the company first (death spiral), now its product (antegren). If anyone has the slightest doubt about the effectiveness of antegren they should go back and read the report published earlier this year in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine.
Elan to at least $10 by year end!
Given this analyst's dubious past, Is it possible he's basing his "scientific" analysis on insufficient data?
I've been involved in clinical trials for 15 years -- managing them and writing clinical reports mostly -- and the only certain thing (with most of them) is the uncertainty of the outcome (efficacious or not). I've worked alongside very bright statisticians within the same group who oft-times come up with conflicting conclusions. Ultimately, the FDA decides if a drug is efficacious (and safe).
It's truly ludicrous to place any weight on what this analyst says. I don't care if he came across information unethically in the past by posing as a doctor or patient -- that is irrelevant for us. What's relevant is data...lots and lots and lots of it. Most drugs are approved by very narrow margins.
Nonetheless, be prepared for a sharp early sell-off tomorrow...I'll be looking to buy in at 4.20...where I missed the past two days.
>Given this analyst's dubious past, Is it possible he's basing his "scientific" analysis on insufficient data?
"Dr. Cunningham, who works at a cancer center in Dallas, says he talked to the caller about the progress of the trials and the side effects seen. He says he mentioned some shrinking of the "lymphadenopathy," which means swollen lymph nodes. "What's that?" the caller asked."
Ya think, maybe? ;-)
<<"Our analysis of Antegren's Ohase 2 data leads ys ti believe that Antegren is unlikely to exhibit clinical significance in the phase 3 trials for both MS and Crohn's."
This is a mid-size firm with a new biotech analyst who has a mixed record.>>
Hey cricket... Keep up the good work... There are a LOT of pumpers and dumpers on this board, so naturally when you post anything pro or con, someone is going to be yelling at you...
Now let me get this straight... The reputation of the analyst who says bad things about phase 3 antegren trials is brought into question and then his statements are dismissed by the Elan board gurus because the analyst may once again be getting his information "unethically"... Holy crap people... What if this analyst really did get some negative information??? I'm not saying whether he did or didn't, but what if he did??? Whether he got it unethically or not, he still got it... You people kill me... How old are you going to have to live before you learn????
THE WALL IS BACK BABY!!!! One ugly pig in desperate need of lipstick for the auction block... That's my opinion...Read it and weep....
The post by cricket is not good work. It is simply another unsubstantiated post. Name the analyst, have the analyst reveal the source, have the source disclose where the information came from, independently verify the information.
Antegren could well be ineffective. The mechanisms of MS and Crohn's have not been determined. Black boxes so to speak. Current attempts to deal with these diseases involve a lot of guess work. Monoclonals in phase 3 often don't cause adverse reactions. Effectivenss is another story.
Boards thrive on nonsense.
<< One ugly pig in desperate need of lipstick for the auction block... >>
Funny, all I see is one desperate short (or possibly wannabe long) with the most idiotic attempt at deception I've seen to date. You can cover now or you can cover later. Later will be more expensive but probably more educational if you're as slow as your post suggests.
>>>>What if this analyst really did get some negative information??? I'm not saying whether he did or didn't, but what if he did???<<<
Jez, bob is afraid to say that this analyst ACTUALLY HAS negative information.
Aschoff played the game, got caught cheating, and now has to live with the loss of credibility. Can't change the game once you've started playing, you know!
Oh wait, you wouldn't understand that, would you?
<<<<<.....Antegren is unlikely to exhibit clinical significance in the phase 3 trials for both MS AND Crohn's.">>>>>>
MS AND Crohn's....AND....He didn't say MS or Crohn's. I never believed that Antegren would work for MS. But the IBD/Chrohn's/Colitis market is huge. Just my opinion.
I agree. Great work cricket ears. Better than that lame basher upanddownmarket who kept ending his bashes by saying Elan had a GREAT FUTURE. How am I suppose to steal shares from the poor tired hungry huddled masses of Elan shareholders when that sucker does that.
Now, you guys got me worried. Every time a lot of bashers come on the board, I worry that the short hedgies are about to cover and the friggin' price may actually RISE. Now, I may never see $4 again !!!
It's time the SEC looked into Jonathan Aschoff and his "analysis". Does anyone have Maxim Group's address so that we can facilitate an SEC investigation into what on the surface looks like bunkum about Antegren.
Nice try there Jiminy..Crohn's data will be impressive, MS spectacular..
With FDA approval for Crohn's, would a MS sufferer look into off label usage and a physician consider giving it considering the SE profile..you betcha..
had to buy more today at $4.46..
good luck longs...