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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • acricketeer acricketeer Jun 30, 2003 8:57 AM Flag

    Forgive Me For Pumping but

    I think the stock could more than double in one day with the announcement of positve results for Crohn's. With that said, I would think the stock would drop below 2 1/2 on missing their primary endpoint. The real question for speculators is whether they could get an interim peek at the data without skewing the results. There is a way of doing that but it all depends on the disease studied. If it's a standalone study and a large number of CD patients showed improvement without taking steroids, one could factor in all the placebo patients and still get a good clue for the outcome. To my knowledge, fistulas just don't disappear spontaneously over a short time. I think the Company is keeping the trial design under wraps for competitive reasons. If anyone knows anything about the trial design, please share it.
    For speculators, look at the August calls. The implieds are high, but not exorbitant and may offer a better risk reward than the stock. Also, I expect the implieds to go up in the face of decay as we get closer to the unblinding, because the shorts will have to hedge by buying calls. Julys are too soon.

 

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