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  • sage533 sage533 Apr 30, 2004 1:46 PM Flag

    see this report

    UPGRADING BIIB/ELN TO OUTPERFORM AND RAISING VALUATION RANGE following the company`s decision to file Antegren for MS in mid-2004 based on an interim examination of two ongoing Phase III trials and consultation with regulators. A mid-2004 filing would likely set up an end-2004/early-2005 launch given a priority review. This is roughly one year ahead of our previous expectations. - EARLY FILING INDICATIVE OF STRONG DATA. BIIB`s decision to file based on one year relapse data, rather than wait for the more commonly accepted two year EDSS score, implies a superior treatment experience with Antegren relative to current standard of care beta-interferons. - EXPECT SALES NEAR $1 BILLION IN 2008. We look for significant Antegren penetration in treatment na?ve patients as well as beta-interferon failures and patients rotating among currently approved therapies. We model total Antegren sales of $130 million, $353 million, $683 million, and $941 million in 2005-2008. - BIIB/ELN`S ACCELERATING GROWTH TRENDS ARE AN ANOMALY IN LARGE CAP BIOTECH. With an Antegren launch in 2005, BIIB/ELN will be one of few large cap biotechs with accelerating earnings trends over the next few years, which should place it in spotlight among investors looking for high growth opportunities among profitable biotechs.

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