I quess I need to educate all the winos on this board. I will make it as simple as possible so you don't have to burn any brainpower.
FY2010 projected Sales which represent 35% of the U.S Market $2B and lets not forget about GSK's MS drug it will be on the market by fy08-09 timeframe.
50/50 Revenue sharing with BIIB a company with a real pipeline.
lets be very concervative and say expenses are around $200M lets say crohn and RA generate another $200M in revenue as Remicade is a far superior drug for these indications and their are a dozen or more drugs in P2 P3 trials for these indications. so net net its $0.
I will add $100M R&D, SGA, bond interest to the model for FY2010 and the starting point is $400M loss. so in total equates to $500M in the red.
$1B revenue - $500M loss & expenses = $500m BTP minus 20% Tax = $400M in ATP divided by a projected 475M shares outstanding = ESP AFT of $0.84 @40X = $33.60 share price in FY2010. its called "DEAD MONEY" if you idiots want to argue the RA sales numbers they could be $0.00 we all know the crohns number will be no more than a $100m per year. We can push up the revenue numbers for MS by $500M ($250M to Elan) and get to $50 bucks per share @ a 40X esp multiple which is on the high side, so do you clowns with the wine jokes get the friggen point or are you just stupid? maybe brain-dead, a new indication for Elan, they can make $Billions on this indication as this board is a true reprsentation.
You started off with a flawed premise. The US market for MS drugs is well in excess of $2 billion, and there are at LEAST 100k patients who are on NO regime at all.
Now plug in the same low ball numbers....
Do you work for Layman Bros.?
Heh numkin; $2B sales in 2010FY - amazing how you miss the point. We will probably be there in 2006 and double that for Chrons, ... for RA, PRIALT...
why do you blantantly bias your analysis with a stupid assumption of FY 2010 rev of $2B and then try to convince us of your analytical prowess. You starting point is just plain WRONG. You're just doing Garbage in, so Garbage out. THE WORST CASE one can imagine is yours ; actually the WORST CASE is isgnificantly better than yours!
SO move over and go back to business school numkin
<<I quess I need to educate all the winos on this board. I will make it as simple as possible so you don't have to burn any brainpower.>>
It's not spelled concervative, it's conservative. It's not quess, it's guess. Chrohn's should be capitalized and the list goes on. Normally I wouldn't pick, as I make typos, but when you put yourself on the brainpower pedestal, you're fair game.
Remicade has serious issues, the GSK drug is early in development, and your numbers are as bad as your spelling. CLICK!
Uhh Luv......it's Crohn's.....
Frogsleap is mathematically challenged no matter how you slice it though. His concern for my grey matter is touching, don't you think?
Say Hello to Tixx for me.
When are we going to have an East Coast EYMB get together? AC is relatively central, would that work?
its to bad that I am pointing out the true facts, Elan will have 475M shares or more outstanding in FY2010, got to sell a lot of tysabri to get decent EPS, ELN gave away the store in FY2003 when they issued those 5% $460M
FY06 callable convertable notes, that convert to 62 MILLION SHARES OF STOCK,,,, so what is your "F" point.
so what you point? its still dead money Elan still only makes $0.84 ESP on $2B in Tysabri sales, did I spell that correctly? Elan has no "PIPELINE" so what the "F" is your point or are you just brain dead.
Aid, for somebody that professes to be a sophisticated stock shorting expert your grasp of numbers is something less than inspiring.
"1B rev for ELN in FY 2010? That's less than 100K patients on Tysabri"
Yes, actually less than 43K patients.
I'll take it easy on you from now on as I think your heart is in the right place.