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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • frogsleapmerlot frogsleapmerlot Dec 7, 2004 10:19 PM Flag

    NUMBERS & Numbers &nuMBERS

    I quess I need to educate all the winos on this board. I will make it as simple as possible so you don't have to burn any brainpower.

    FY2010 projected Sales which represent 35% of the U.S Market $2B and lets not forget about GSK's MS drug it will be on the market by fy08-09 timeframe.
    50/50 Revenue sharing with BIIB a company with a real pipeline.
    lets be very concervative and say expenses are around $200M lets say crohn and RA generate another $200M in revenue as Remicade is a far superior drug for these indications and their are a dozen or more drugs in P2 P3 trials for these indications. so net net its $0.
    I will add $100M R&D, SGA, bond interest to the model for FY2010 and the starting point is $400M loss. so in total equates to $500M in the red.

    $1B revenue - $500M loss & expenses = $500m BTP minus 20% Tax = $400M in ATP divided by a projected 475M shares outstanding = ESP AFT of $0.84 @40X = $33.60 share price in FY2010. its called "DEAD MONEY" if you idiots want to argue the RA sales numbers they could be $0.00 we all know the crohns number will be no more than a $100m per year. We can push up the revenue numbers for MS by $500M ($250M to Elan) and get to $50 bucks per share @ a 40X esp multiple which is on the high side, so do you clowns with the wine jokes get the friggen point or are you just stupid? maybe brain-dead, a new indication for Elan, they can make $Billions on this indication as this board is a true reprsentation.

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