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  • rain682001 rain682001 Jan 15, 2005 8:36 PM Flag

    Sunday Business Post/Part three

    �The story with Tysabri has just started,�' Ekman said.

    Analysts believe that Elan shares have further to rise as Elan and Biogen quantify the amount of revenues as Tysabri is rolled out.

    �We won't get a handle on that until the next few months,� said Ian Hunter at Goodbody Stockbrokers.

    Hunter last moved his 52-week target for the shares last November and has predicted the shares will reach $33.40 by late this year.

    �We are not going to see the same level of appreciation as 2004,� he said. �You will see solid growth as Tysabri proceeds into the market for MS and as it gets approval for Crohn's.�

    On the prospects for Alzheimer's, Hunter said that research into the disease was �much more emotive'� for investors, and that any news tended to see the share price move.

    Alzheimer's research is much bigger, with about 75 drug treatments in research, compared with only 25 potential treatments being explored for MS.

    �Everyone is trying to get something for Alzheimer's,� said Hunter.

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    • Yes. Part of the reason is that once past the stage where they know that something is happening, they have no stress. Every day, every moment is new. It is amazing to see. One of those two ladies had a hip relacement at 90. I stayed in the hospital with her as she was really only responsic=ve to my voice. She sailed thru rehab at home. No fear of pain because it was forgotten. Wonder, when there was pain. It taught me something important about at least trying to stay in the moment and not borrowing grief or pain.

      The losses are profound, but with all that, the humanity shines clearly.

    • >>If they are basically healthy, they can live a very long time.

      And there is the cruelest of all insults wreaked by AD.

      regards

    • Sunday Business Post is in Dublin. Great article, but read by a small audience. It would be nice to see the New York Times or Wall Street Journal reprint it.

    • "Hunter last moved his 52-week target for the shares last November and has predicted the shares will reach $33.40 by late this year."


      We will see a flood of upgrades following next week's Jan expiration. IMHO

    • Rain,

      Thanks for posting this. What a great article. It shows that Elan's focus is still AD which will make Tysabri look puny in comparison.

      This article is the best I've seen in the 3+ years I've been following Elan. I can't believe that the message board isn't jumping for joy over it rather than prattling on about a new board.

      How about this: "Last week, talking to this newspaper, Ekman's enthusiasm had dimmed little. This time he was talking about the prospects of extending Tysabri for the treatment Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis and about the outlook for Prialt, the pain management drug that has recently been approved by US regulators.

      But more significantly, Elan's R&D president was also looking forward to the prospects this year for Elan's clinical tests on Alzheimer's with a separate treatment.

      Alzheimer's treatment is the blockbuster that the global drug industry is chasing. In market terms, it towers above MS, Crohn's and related diseases.

      But for Ekman, Alzheimer's research, with its separate treatment, remains at the heart of Elan's mission...."

      Or this: "�The first drug we had was AN1792.What happened was that in phase II we had a small number of patients who had a transitory inflammation of the brain - they had it for 10 days, and then it went away."

      Or: �What the market did not understand is that we continued to monitor those patients, and what we found was that they had an improved quality of life and brain function. We got what is called the �truth of principle' for the drug, and what we had to find was a safer mechanism.�

      Elan and pharmaceutical giant Wyeth are betting that their newAAB-001 is that safer drug. The antibody treatment has been in clinical trials for 18 months, and no side effects have been reported.

      Additional data from the trials will be published in the next three months, potentially bringing investor focus back to Elan's work on Alzheimer's this year.


      ...

      �The purpose is to reverse the disease,� said Ekman.

      �There is no drug which is a so-called disease modifier.

      �There are a number which have started trials, but there is no rival which is a disease modifier.�

      Current drugs are disease inhibitors, which increase the number of transmitters in the brain, according to Ekman.

      �In this, Elan and Wyeth are clearly leading the race in immune therapy approach to Alzheimer's.�

      Elan hopes to bring the drug to market by 2008-2009.


      HA

      • 4 Replies to hrastp
      • Think about the market.

        They state 20 million Ad victims by 2010. I don't know what you could charge but lets assume that you charge 10,000 a year. That is $200 bill a year in revenues. I don't think we could come close to that but even if you get $20 - $30 billion you would get profits in the $10 - $20 bill range. That is $20 - $40 a share. ELN splits that 50/50 so $10 - $20 a share. That would add $300 - $600 a share to the stock price.

        If AD is working I might have to re-adjust my financial goals.

      • The statement that AN1792 only caused brain inflamation for about 10 days and then it went away makes me wonder. Obviously, if I had AD this is a risk that I would clearly take for the only treatment offering any hope for permanent improvement.

        Perhaps there is another reason for the switch to passive immunization approach and not fighting the regulatory bodies for approval of AN1792. This reason could be that a passive approach is much-much more profitable, since it has to be given over and over again.

        Any opinions?

      • If you start to think about The SEnior Mngt Team,
        since they started doing these Conference last year,
        just after the decision to file early for Tysabri and the $640M debt equity was completed. It is like they are doing a "Painting by numbers".

        I would bet that Kelly Martin is orchestrating this whole presentation as if he were doing a "Campaign for President". His Ivy League degree in Political Science and Wall Street background would serve him well.

        There has been no sense of urgency. I am convinced that they truly believe the quest for the Presidency is the Alzheimer Research Program.
        Although this project was initiated in the past regime, it was Garo and the rest of the BOD that made the decision to hire this Wall Street finance-type.

        The beginning goal was to streamline the operation.
        They accomplished that and made that Balance Sheet transparent when they completed the Restructering and the Morgen Stanley $640M deal.

        Now they had to prepare for a return to Wall Street.
        The Roadshows started the makeover of the Image and selling of the Business Plan. With Tysabri and Prialt in motion the Alzheimer program was being prepared for the unveilng at the Coronation Ball.

        In order to give Wall Street the assurance they were serious about conquering the disease, they got their approvals for Tysabri and Prialt AND put together a $1.1 Billion Dollar long term Debt deal, again by Morgan Stanley with a more prestigious selling group, that gave them the financial backing to present , what they consider the reason for their existence. The Alzheimer Research Program.

        The AD Convention in July ,which they sponsored, was just the New Hamshire Primary. Lars in this interview presented the Master Plan .Elan is now ready to let the World know they are prepared for the Coronation Ball., A stabilizer? A Cure?

        It has been beautiful to

        Watch Elan Grow

      • If anyone can beat Alzheimer's, Dr Lars Eckman will do it (with just a little help from Nobel prize material Dale Schenck, of course)

        Lars is easier to understand in print, of course, but I would encourage anyone invested, or thinking of investing, in ELN to listen to the man, to hear the passion when he speaks.

        Elan is bringing a mega-blockbuster to market in Tysabri, and Dr Eckman says ....

        AD is our purpose, our reason for being.

        Alzheimer's, the irresistible force, say hello to Lars Eckman, the immovable object.

        I think Lars is gonna win.

    • Is this the same Dr. Ian Hunter who saw no upside to Elan's near term pps last year just before the announcement to file Antegren early? <Hunter last moved his 52-week target for the shares last November and has predicted the shares will reach $33.40 by late this year.>

      Of course he's correct in that Elan will reach $33.40 late this year (love the $33.40, why not $33.39 or $33.41?) but he's not prepared to guide where we with all probability will actually be late this year. IMO it will be well above his $33.40.

      Hunter is good with everything else but he cannot call the pps.

      Still sticking with $42 by end October 2005.

      Fred.

      • 2 Replies to huntsmann_ie
      • I thought Ian Hunter was one of the most knowledgeable Irish analysts, who's always been very favorable to Elan. As for predicting PPS - nobody can really do that (which doesn't keep us all from trying; an investor really should have a target).

      • .........Morning Fred. This article is going to help our pps, big time!

        Pity that twit Hunter got involved.

        I'm looking foward to reading Elmer's reaction, His enthusiasm for the Alzheimers programme is one notch higher than mine.

        The reason I'm replying to your post is because I think your your pps of $42 in October will happen circa 6 months earlier.
        Hope I'm right :-)
        Still this article is brilliant.

        Regards Odz.

 
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