This is my first post since the second "crash" of Elan. I've been a ELN shareholder since 1996, and have seen it all. A PPS of $16 to $32 to $65 to $1, back up to $27-30, then down now to $8. Since Monday morning when started my computer and work and then the ELN announcement in complete disbelief, I have had no sleep whatsoever. I'm still in complete and utter shock about the news. I keep blinking my eyes and reading the first Monday headline, and it seems like a bad dream that I can't wake from. Again, at 37 yrs old, I'm starting all over again financially. Lost more here than I can even have the courange to talk about. ELN has taken years off my life as a loyal shareholder. I have endured unspeakable grief. I'm most upset for my MS friend Ellen who I have spoke of so frequently leading up to Ty's approval. I haven't had the stomach to call her yet. She was receiving Ty since approval and doing very well with outstanding results.
I haven't been able to eat--keep food down--since this all happened. Creester, hoow are you coping with all this?? I know you were heavily in too?
I agree that the big risk right now is that the new MRI's turn up some case(s) of PML.
Boy, today's action sure feels like "capitulation" (usually a sign of a bottom).
Do you agree, or do you think we're got further to go to hit bottom?
brians- with respect, I think you're wrong. Merck pulled Vioxx, but I don't believe it can be reintroduced without the FDA's OK.
My guess is that the FDA is a full-fledged partner (with veto power) in all discussions about tysabri, right now.
Just a guess.
in regard to your #4. I don't think it is up to the FDA (as of now) whether or not Tysabri is re-released because they were not the ones to pull it.
Merch pulled Vioxx, but Pfized left Celebrex on the market.
I most certainly could be wrong because I don't really know the rules.
Patient #1 had PML. Period. Patient #2 may not have had PML. Still need biopsy results
Steroids were NOT the cause of the PML in either patient.
Will Tysabri be back on the market? Probably, but as a 2nd line treatment as a monotherapy.
Still has blockbuster potential assuming no more cases of PML or suspected PML found.
That wraps up the story until tomorrow.
OK, no more lectures. On to what's happening now. The market has overreacted and overcorrected to the bad news. It's hard to read when the selling will end, but I added 20% to my diminished position in Elan today. Probably should have waited until tomorrow.
So, ultimately I am in agreement with your scenario. Of course the risk is that something will turn up in the MRIs. But, I dont think so, given prior scrutiny in the monotherapy trials. And we have some time before major debt payments are due (2008).
(CONTIUNED FROM PART 2):
AN IMPORTANT ASIDE: my first reaction to this week's developments was, like that of many other posters, to suspect that Biogen screwed Elan due to the Avonex/Tysabri "conflict of interest". Upon further reflection, I no longer feel that way. Yes, Biogen "owns" the SLA, per the agreement negotiated by Geaney et al (predates Kelly Martin).
But it's now very clear to me that Biogen would be totally idiotic to sabotage Tysabri. For one thing, the Dollar market cap of Biogen has fallen more than Elan's this week, which certainly doesn't suggest that Biogen has benefitted at Elan's expense.
Also, everything Biogen has said publically about the "driver" for their rosy growth forecasts has made it clear that Tysabri is what they are counting on to move them forward. Avonex, Rituxan and the rest are not going to cut the mustard.
My private guess is that, when Mullen found out about the risk that the two patients might have been damaged by Tysabri and/or Avonex, coupled with the fact that he knew that a few Biogen insiders had sold big blocks of stock right about the same time, he sort of panicked and concluded that he would look much more prudent/innocent by immediately withdrawing Tysabri from the market.
I don't really blame him for that, although I wish he hadn't done it.
In the end, his actions may even be helpful to Tysabri (although I think it's WAY too early to predict that.)
Thanks for the "lecture that's not a lecture". It has prompted me to think hard about a few things which I might otherwise have glossed over.
The next few days/weeks/months are going to be very interesting, and nervewracking to be sure. Even painful, probably.
I feel so badly for those who were financially destroyed by these events.
If you feel like delivering a lecture that I could agree 1000% with, it would be about the perils of (a) buying on margin and (2) buying call options. I'll bet that all those who are REALLY suffering right now could have benefitted mightily from that lecture, last week or earlier. The rest of us, at least, can continue to own our shares and play the next inning of this exciting game.
Be well, my friend.
Mouse- wondering if you will accept my wager.
You have my sympathy. Life can certainly hand out the challenges.
I tell myself that even an intelligent and rational investor would be nailed under these conditions--no inkling of trouble, no time to react. Sure, people will say, you should always diversify, but they forget to say that many many successful entrepreneurs can't/never diversify. They put all their time, effort, and energy into their business, or idea, and go for broke. That is how great things are accomplished. And as they teach in business school, only one in five new businesses succeeds. The key is to be able to pick yourself up and go out and try again, and again. I think that the same can be said here. Don't give up the dream. Pick one's self up, and try, try again.
P.S. I hope you read the article about the hedge fund that got nailed big time also. Those are supposedly the best and smartest. The fund was into both Elan and BIIB bigtime. There is a lot of company in this fiasco, so don't think you are alone.
Sorry to hear it all over again from another friend.
How do I survive?
1. My faith in God
2. My wife, though not happy, is an incredibly understanding woman. She used to say, "you're up, you're down, whatever..."
3. I was only 10% on margin...this was critical, considering I was "all in".
4. Had to tell myself about 100 times, this is just where we were before it was announced ?Feb 18, 2004 that Antegren was going to be submitted for fast track approval--mid $8's
5. Maybe with some luck, we can be back in another year...
6. If you're breathing and have one good friend you're rich!
I am rich in so many ways that have nothing to do with money...
creed..you are a good man...
I was loaded and got hit pretty bad..
like I told someone today, my 2 1/2 yo son doesn't ask me how Elan is doing..
there is a lesson here somewhere...
time to reaccumulate..now I really wish I had some capital...
I will wait for Schenk and co to have there
ps..I don't see a link ..we will see.
peace to ya creed and other long timers...this rollercoaster can be quite nauseating at times.
pss..many friends want to kick my ass...
Your first is one of the greatest I've seen made on this board. A solid person will always have his priorties in order. God first, family next. I still have God and family though my losses were unbelievable. True friends are always great.
Recommend the post. Same way here.....I'm back in at 30% of my portfolio vs. 15% before the crash. At this risk level, and taking account of the good management and science, I feel very comfortable holding for a year or so.
I went to bed Sunday night thinking I had over a million dollars deposited in one of the safest places. A company helping a growing aging population, international in scope, gold standard drug, top scientist in the world, high integrety management, etc..
Lost everything in a few seconds. Still have to deal with Fidelity. Hope they will let me arrange loan payments of interest only till I can downsize my house to a more cozy one.
A friend brought over a book that he said was very important for me to read especially under the present circumstances. I am 1/3 through it, and I highly recommend that all Elan shareholders get a copy and read it.
It's a New York Times Best Seller. The title is "THE TRAVELER'S GIFT", by Andy Andrews.
This is copied from the back cover:
"The Traveler's Gift effectively combines self-help with fiction...sustaining momentum while simultaneously passing on instruction for positive thinking...an exemplary job at providing positive suggestions for overcoming life's obstacles...
Please get a copy. Phone your local library, maybe they have a copy. Still definitely worth the 20 bucks at the store. You can pass it around to friends and family. BOL Kenny
PS Getting set up with another broker. Will start out small and just keep adding shares of Elan as pps and funds permit. Feel like I am playing Monoply. Go directly to Jail. Loose a turn, go back to the beginning and start over.
As long as disgarded beer and soda cans can still be redeemed for cash, and I have my health, I am still in "the game". One exception, if I ever meet Levon for lunch, I think he is going to have to now pick up the tab.