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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • deferoy7 deferoy7 Mar 13, 2005 7:56 AM Flag


    Board is quiet but we are now very much in the lap of the gods so its probably a good thing. Despite all that has been written, we will only know the outcome when the Cos tell us. We should get some clues on Wednesday when both BIIB and ELN present and answer questions.

    Personally I feel that the odds for a relatively rapid return of T are about 66%

    Things that make me confident;

    Only Combo affected

    Longer term crohns trials where CNS symptoms should not be confused with MS

    Eln Issuing options now (if price dropped to 3 for example those options would be completely out of the money).

    Things that worry me;

    Second PML patient had antibodies to avonex

    One non combo patient died of a brain tumour (was diagnosis correct � should be but..)

    We don�t really understand how the immune system really works.

    Decision to suspend even the trials

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    • I hear what your saying...In my opinion, this is far to big of a risk to have money sitting on these stocks. If word via one of the companies or FDA hits the street that there sitting on this drug for any amount of time, these stocks will go into a tail spin below previous lows. If there is a 6 month delay, Elan could see the high 3's on that very day the news breaks.