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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • marginnayan marginnayan Jun 6, 2005 6:04 AM Flag

    Leh update on 4th patient Part III

    Investment Conclusion
    ! Our negative outlook for Tysabri remains unchanged
    and we continue to believe that Tysabri is unlikely to
    return to the MS market - suggesting limited upside in
    the stock at current levels.
    Summary
    ! Last Thursday, 6/2, The Boston Globe ran a story
    relating to a potential fourth case of PML in a Tysabritreated
    patient. The Boston Globe obtained from FDA
    the case report form (CRF) under FOI, which we have
    also requested from the agency. We have spoken with
    the clinician who was quoted by the article after the
    journalist shared details of the report with her.
    ! As a result, we have assembled some key facts.
    Although the PML case is not yet confirmed, we
    believe that, if true, the speed with which the patient
    contracted PML damages Biogen & Elan's chances of
    re-launching Tysabri unless PML risk factors that are
    present prior to starting Tysabri therapy can be used to
    prevent at-risk patients from starting therapy.


    Neuro, P, MB - COMMENTS, please no bashing or pumping.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Don't forget Mouse that KM and Lars made their strong comments regarding TY at AGM. I strongly doubt KM and Lars would be as positive as they were if there was any doubt regarding this case. My 2 cents worth...

    • If Lehman is basing its investment advice on the Globe story, that says more about the quality of lack thereof, than about ELAN and whether Tysabri will be back on the market.

      I cannot believe that they would issue this kind of advisory based on this news story. One would have thought they might have consulted medical experts familiar with FDA procedures and practices at a minimum. One might have thought they would differentiate how this case is different from that of Celebrex.

      My lord, if I was using Lehman as my investment adviser they would not continue to be after the flimsiness of their analysis.

      • 2 Replies to astrojny
      • I was in the investment industry on the buy side (institutional investing) for 15 years prior to my retirement. Started as a quant since I have a PhD in engineering, but went from there on to other stuff in the active portfolio management area. Let me put it simply: 99.5% of all the stuff the sell side says is not worth it. There are a few, and very few at that, analysts that cover anything with any degree of understanding or rigor. Most of them go at stuff with either a mba or a degree in journalism. Bottom line, these guys would not understand a professional phagocyte if the met one walking down the street. They call people and release uncensored rot that they hear on the phone for the most part. "Truth by repeated affirmation" is a way of living with them.

        The first rule of being an analyst is not to stand out. If all the rest of the sell side says something, do not go against it. Same thing with portfolio managers btw.

        Most of these guys would not have enough technical background to write a macro in an office suite. Read what they have to say, but after that go check on all their facts and think about what they are saying. Taking their word at face value is unhealthy for your portfolio.

      • It's clear to me that Lehman is using the Globe story as a COVER to buy stock while saying the drug won't be coming back. Later,
        they can save face by upgrading once the news is out. It's amazing what crooks are on Wall Street.

    • I guess its akin to showing your work to your boss and wanting to grade it yourself.

      We just have to let the FDA system run its course.

    • "Although the PML case is not yet confirmed, we
      believe that, if true, the speed with which the patient contracted PML damages Biogen & Elan's chances of re-launching Tysabri unless PML risk factors that are present prior to starting Tysabri therapy can be used to prevent at-risk patients from starting therapy."

      ---------------------------------------------

      that's the point of the investigation. they will perform a t-cell count test to patients before patient allowed. that is cheap and easy. tysabri monotherapy ms is going to happen. wall street doesn't know anything.

    • patient was not in any study group.

    • thanks for sharing the Lehman
      analysis with everyone.

      a couple of weeks ago i gave
      serious consideration to buying
      some call contracts on ELN. NEURO1111
      then advised us that based upon what
      is presently known he personally
      would not prescribe Tysabri
      as the "first-line medication" for
      newly diagnosed MS patients. this
      meant that the potential MS market for
      Tysabri, if permitted back on the market,
      likely was close to Ms Whittaker's estimates,
      leaving ELN over-valued at current levels.
      i bought WYE October 45 call contracts
      instead.

      very difficult to disagree with Lehman's
      conclusions here concerning ELN.

 

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