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  • graytreefrog graytreefrog Jun 17, 2005 10:41 AM Flag

    Quiet Confidence

    The Oceanside sale makes business sense to me. Excess capacity.

    The disconnect in communication 'between' Elan and Biogen and 'from' Elan and Biogen have required some thought.

    Listen to the CCs. Compare and contrast BIIB's and ELN's. When the opportunity arises, who undercuts whom? Why?

    I still think Elan has the best new science in the business. When I hear the substantial differences between Biogen pounding their own drums in a CC, and the subtlety and quiet confidence that comes from Kelly Martin during ours, I know what side of the equation I prefer. So that is how I view the communication 'from' ELN and BIIB.

    In the past, Kelly Martin looked uneasy next to Mullen on CNBC. With Biogen possibly having been turned away in early takeover or merger approaches (and possibly with other *concerns*), Mullen is looking more tense, more guarded, and that may carry over to the relationship with Martin. The pair of them definitely looks and behaves less than warm-glowy-comfy-cozy.

    Maybe that perceived rift has worked to our advantage, too. With a hot SEC investigation in progress with BIIB currently, I like the disconnect and divergence that apparently exists 'between' both them them and the companys' strategies/directions at this point.

    Biotech is a risky and forward looking business. Managers who play their cards close to the vest are likely protecting our interests. A premature buy-out here would be a disaster for Elan shareholders--the way I see it, anyway.

    The only way to avoid attracting big intrusions is to quietly go about doing one's business, making forward progress, and avoiding advertising one's wares on every streetcorner.

    I don't think we want Kelly Martin to bare all. He has things he is bursting to tell shareholders and the world, but needs to be discrete. We still need cover and protection from being ravaged.

    Kelly Martin has done a lot, very systematically, very quietly, very successfully, in just two years. I need to focus on that rather than the amorphous uncertainty that (I think) has been intentionally placed before us. It is just that uncertaintly that also confuses pharma predators that are lurking about, ready to pounce on us in a vulnerable moment.

    Predators circling about us are cunning and opportunistic. If they smell blood, see a wound, they circle closer.

    Kelly Martin's quiet ways are not meant to sabotage shareholders. I don't know how to protect us, I think Kelly Martin does. I don't know how to run Elan, and I think Kelly Martin does. I defer to management.

    As an aside, as the discussion here on this MB has gone to the 'splitting' of the partnership from time to time, I have a perspective on that, too. There is a reason that divorces are so expensive, they are worth it. If it comes to that, let the lawyers sort it out.

    In the meantime, I have taken a stand, and I am not backing down. I regard our management's quiet confidence as a very attractive trait.


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    • my...... hostility, hehe

    • Great post. How about: $9.75 is possible by July and $9.25 by year-end? Or less. Or more. Or ....

    • I'm still targeting 9 end of july; 12 in October.

      So, yes, 8 should be possible, unless we gap through it.


    • Treefrog, with all the guessing going on here your post gets the closest to my own guesses!

      Thank you!

      KM doesn`t want to display all the goodies of the pipeline in a show-case; much too dangerous!!

      Leave all these preditors in limbo -

      we the shareholders with this great MB are not in such a state - we are being spoonfed by neuro, pin, finanid,teckno and all other "science-posters"- we can wait!!

      ...until hard numbers will speak ..and they will speak volumes!

      Catch everybody by surprise!

      PS Do women think alike?!

      • 2 Replies to ridge303
      • Yes, Ridge, ;)

        Elan women have been and continue to be a patient, resilient, tenacious, and optimistic group. I have those sticky little toes, and the mysterious tree shakers need to forget about trying to rattle me out of *my* tree.

        As far as I'm concerned, Kelly can keep those weasels guessing until *he's* ready to rattle the timbers!


      • I agree great post! I only pop in once in a while but lets just think about LOGIC here. They HAVE to be quiet because when WORD gets out...yes you name it, the instututions, firms, longs, day traders, and lurkers are going to be jumping through hoops to get in this stock!! Were talking about breakthrough drugs here people, arent we? MS...Parkinsons? And it kills me the people selling and sick and tired of this stock. If you want quick results then become a day trader.

        ELN has plenty of cash am I right? And they have more than TY and thats one of the reasons I got in at 3.66. Some of you people are just going to have to treat this baby like a retirement fund and just hold and wait and see. Simonsez

    • You may be right about Martin, but it's mostly irrelevant. Elan lives or dies with tysabri, and Kelly can't do much about it (just try to get it back in such a way as to make as much money as possible). On the plant closing, the obvious thought is that Biogen doesn't think it's going to need as much tysabri as previously thought (as Joe Kernan mentioned on CNBC), and is cutting costs. That's probably simplistic, but seems sort of positive for and ominous for Elan.

    • You have been around here for a few years now if my memory is correct. Haven't been posting though have you? I remember for back in the 20 post pedear.og days.

    • treefrog,
      I am confused, were you talking about ELN or about a damsel about to be ravished.

      Gotta hand it to you though, for putting spin on you are tops.

      Like in an old melodrama, ELN is the strong silent type while that damn BIIB is nosily trying to stir up trouble. Never mind that the strong silent type through ineptitude saw 3/4 of its ranch taking away; for those lucky enough to hang on, maybe it will all turn out fine in the end.

      Anyway, congratulations on the spin. Best of the week, I think.

    • Great post!